India is likely to overtake Japan in 2028 to become the third largest economy in the world after China and the US, according to London-based economic consultancy Cebr.

According to Cebr’s World Economic League table report for 2013, India has lost a place in the league table in 2013 to Canada and is now the 11th largest economy in the world.

“But demographics and economic growth will eventually drive the Indian economy up the table and the forecast for 2028 has India becoming the world’s third largest economy overtaking Japan,” the report said.

The Cebr World Economic League Table (WELT) is an annual calculation by the consultancy. The base data for 2012 is taken from the IMF World Economic Outlook and the GDP forecast draws on Cebr’s Global Prospects model to forecast growth, inflation and exchange rates.

The report gives an end-of-year report on GDP in the 30 largest economies in the world and forecasts countries that will be in the ‘top thirty’ after 5, 10 and 15 years.

In the 2013 league table, India is at the 11th place with a GDP of $1,758 billion, and by 2018 the country is likely to be at the 9th place with a GDP of $2,481 billion, and by 2023 it would be at fourth place, with GDP size of $4,124 billion, and it will claim third spot with GDP of $6,560 billion by 2028, it said.

The 2013 league table shows only two changes in the list of top 20 economies. Firstly, Russia overtook recession-stricken Italy to gain eighth place and Canada overtook India as a result of the collapse of the rupee to retake its position as the second largest economy in the Commonwealth and the 10th largest economy in the world, the report said.

By the year 2018, the emerging economies will be “on the move”. Russia would be at the sixth place; India ninth, Mexico 12th, Korea 13th and Turkey 17th, it said.

By 2023, India and Brazil would be “on the march” and are likely to claim the fourth and fifth place, respectively.

By the year 2028, the league table will be reordered.

China will move to the number one place, followed by the US (2nd), India (3rd), Mexico (9th) and Canada (10th).

The report further said China’s GDP in dollar terms is likely to overtake the US in 2028 — much later than most previous predictions.

Meanwhile, the UK would overtake Germany to become the largest Western European economy ‘around 2030’, it added.

(This article was published on December 27, 2013)
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