The Hindu Business Line : Whose fault is it, anyway?

The era of outsourcing has paved the way for pointing fingers and litigation between IT vendors and clients. Ed Yourdon, author, has this and more to say on the US IT industry.

Speak to Ed Yourdon and two things hit you in the face. One, that universities are reporting a sharp drop (as much as 70 per cent) in enrolments in Computer Science and related courses. And two, that the average US Company that spends on technology is spending more money in litigation than in programming.

The second is even more interesting given the cost cutting and the value-for-money climate existing in the US. Yourdon is an author whose books include, Decline and Fall of the American Programmer.

eWorld caught up with him in Bangalore where he attended a board meeting of iGate Global Solutions. Excerpts from the conversation:

Indian colleges did report a slump in enrolment in engineering courses in the year 2001-2002. But it wasn't widespread and the trend didn't sustain. Why is the US scene different?

When a situation goes sour, it is only natural that those affected warn the aspirants that the future is bleak in the industry. So those who suffered layoffs or did not land great jobs due to the slowdown were inclined to warn their younger family members that a degree in computer science might not be worth their while. Of course, due to the lack of jobs, several young people went back to college but that trend was more than offset by the complete disenchantment with the IT industry.

So did it scare away some non-experts as well?

At the time, young people with a degree in computer science or related field were wondering what their peers with no background in computers were doing in the industry, and earning so much money. So, the folks who had no interest in technology and no business being involved with the industry disappeared. That won't come back. So, it's a healthy thing that happened.

What is your opinion on the backlash against movement of jobs to India? Doesn't the free market theory apply here?

Personally, I feel it does hold. I believe that jobs should go where they are most suitable for the company to send them. But, at the same time, I feel that there should be an equal playing field for both Indian and American companies. If an Indian Government were to grant a $10 million subsidy to a local company for setting up infrastructure such as a campus, that is something the US might protest against, because US companies don't get that kind of subsidy. American politicians and journalists will begin looking for such things here. I also notice a lot of unfounded accusations against India and Indian companies — that the quality or process certificates that companies here have got, such as the SEI CMM certification, are bogus and that certifiers had been bribed into granting certificates in exchange for consulting business. All of that is absolute rubbish. But in the current political climate, some people listen to things like that.

In your resume that we were handed out earlier, we find that you specialise in `turning around IT projects'. What do you do?

The track record of IT projects, generally, in the last 40 years has been dismal. There is a very strong tendency for projects to completely fail and collapse or to grossly exceed budgets and schedules. Sometimes, the result surprises everybody. But often, you can see it coming. While managers in charge of a project give an unrealistic picture so that the project doesn't die, senior management wants to know if the project could be saved or left to sink. That's where people like me come in. We give an objective opinion as to whether the project could be saved or how much more money and time it would take to save it and the like.

For the last two or three years, I have been spending more of my time even further along this path. Earlier, if a project failed, someone is fired at the worst and the company goes back to the drawing board. In the era of outsourcing, the client feels cheated and he wants to sue the vendor. The vendor claims non-payment of invoices and sues the client back. The lawyers then hire technical experts such as myself to render an opinion. Clearly, the US industry spends more on litigation than on programming code. And litigation expenses are never in budgets. No one even does a risk analysis to ensure that they are protected against litigation. Only the Y2K problem led to some risk-planning. But not since or before has anyone done some risk planning.

Some top research groups have predicted the death of the programmer in the next 10 years.

These are predictions that are made once in 10 years or so. When I started out in this field 30 or 40 years ago, nearly all computations that were to be made were a programmer's responsibility. Now, anyone using MS Access or Excel spreadsheets for financial analyses is doing some very sophisticated programming.

In other words, more and more end users are doing more programming.

Or, if the mundane stuff were left to the users to do, good programmers would have more opportunity to develop some very sophisticated tools.

Surely the infinite desire for more information systems would keep the breed growing and busy.

In much the same way that jobs are moving from the US to India, they could well move onto other markets such as China. What do you think India should do to stop this?

Other than the obvious focus on niche segments, India should begin to explore partnerships in markets such as China. If you can't beat them, you should join them.

bharatk@thehindu.co.in

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