Take a simple customisable Web 2.0-homepage solution from Netvibes.com, a start-up company founded by Florent Fremont and Tariq Krim. This beta version of the service is free. It gives the user the ability to create a personalised page with any content that they like, and offers the scope to add data feeds from different Web sites and access the page any time and from any computer. One can have news from one's favourite sources lined up on one side, follow a list of blog conversations on another and manage to keep tabs on e-mail as well as weather in yet another part of the page.

Or take the case of Goowy (www.goowy.com) , which is a complete operating environment including e-mail, sticky notes, RSS feeds, and other paraphernalia, all available from your nearest Web browser.

Compare this to the recent launch of Windows Live by Microsoft. Like Netvibes.com, Windows Live (www.live.com) is a free beta version of the application. Not only does it offer all that Netvibes.com offers, it also has other functionality such as e-mail and instant messaging platform to be integrated with VoIP (which is to be added early next year). To top it all, it has a separate site called microsoftgadgets.com, which will provide third-party applications for live.com. It may be fair to assume that Microsoft will be able to offer more gadgets more quickly because of its wide network of developers - both internal and external. This is just one example of how the changing competitive picture will determine the future of start-ups and the nature of personalisation of content.

Slowly, but surely, large companies such as eBay, Amazon, AOL or Apple can smell the e-commerce opportunities that will be linked to RSS feeds. eBay is in a position to attract buyers for bargains using RSS feeds, Amazon can do the same thing for books, music and other selling categories or Microsoft can notify users about new applications launched in its office productivity software.

Other innovations that are linked to the social networking opportunity are also falling into place. Take for instance, Flickr, that lets users create, manage and share photos online. This company, acquired by Yahoo, is opening up online opportunities using this idea. Or take del.icio.us, which has ushered in an opportunity in the area of managing bookmarked Web pages through the online community. Or LinkedIn or Upcoming.org, which manages the contacts/address book or social events calendar for users.

The commercial potential of this opportunity is just beginning to be exploited by the Internet community. Since these offer substantial potential for advertising, these are being tracked very closely. If the past is any guide, once the bigger players such as Yahoo, Microsoft, Google or eBay or mainstream media giants start getting into the act in a big way, the numbers should start rising dramatically. The process of consolidation has already begun with a string of acquisitions such as Rupert Murdoch's Newscorp buying out Intermix Media, a social networking site, Verisign's acquisition of Weblogs.com, New York Times logging into About.com or AOL purchasing Weblogs Inc. Some of the deals have involved buying into blogging companies and some of it into blogging infrastructure, but the trend is clear. No doubt, some of the valuations are looking dangerously bubble-like, but that happens to be the nature of the beast in highly disruptive times.

Vision of the future

Compared to the dotcom wave of the late nineties and this time around, the opening up of the "online advertising" opportunity is a big differentiator for long-term players in this business. As Ray Ozzie, inventor of Lotus Notes and Microsoft's Chief Technology Officer states in an internal memo, "no one yet knows what kind of software and in which markets this model (of online advertising) will be embraced, and there is tremendous revenue potential in those where it ultimately is." The next generation of services will probably be driven by a different set of pricing metrics. Business models that revolve around ad-supported revenues and pay-per-use will slowly replace the entrenched license fee models of the past.

Second, as search technology gets more robust, content ranging from text, music and video will be increasingly available over the Web. Against daunting odds, the vision of convergence that integrates text, music and video is slowly taking shape on the Internet. The transformative power of this development will be quite significant. The early signs offered by Podcasting, a technology that allows distribution of audio files to the public are encouraging. The recent decision by AOL Time Warner to launch Web TV (or Internet TV) for free based on ad-support will add another dimension to the services battle.

The signals from the convergence industry are ominous. Google's collision course with the publishing industry over copyrights, the music industry's and Hollywood's fear of P2P downloads is likely to slow down the process. But since consumers have tasted the freedom of the internet, their power will prevail in the long run.

Picture by T.L. Prabhakar

Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication :: Printer Friendly Page