LATEST UPDATE: The low pressure area over north-west Bay of Bengal has intensified to being 'well-marked'.
The low-pressure area over northwest Bay of Bengal off Gangetic West Bengal and Orissa coasts has persisted this (Wednesday) morning.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) expects the weather system to intensify in a linear fashion to what global weather models figure out would be the strength of a monsoon depression over the next few days.
If that be the case, it would be the first such weather system to materialise in the peninsular seas after the drought year of 2009.
Year 2010 had a normal monsoon but it was despite the fact that it had to do without single monsoon depression, only the second such instance after year 2002 in a recorded history of 121 years of tracking monsoon depressions.
A weather warning has warned of isolated heavy rainfall over coastal Karnataka, coastal areas of Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa and north coastal Andhra Pradesh during the next two days.
The monsoon trough over land has laid itself out along the classic west-northwest to east-southeast alignment from Ferozepur, Karnal, Shahjahanpur, Varanasi, Dhanbad and Bankura to dip into the centre of the Bay ‘low’ and further southeastwards to east-central Bay of Bengal.
A weather warning for this region said that isolated thunder squalls are likely over Punjab, Haryana, east Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and Madhya Pradesh.
This is even as a concurrent heat wave sustained in the region, shooting up the mercury to the highest maximum of 44.9 degree Celsius yesterday (Tuesday).
Meanwhile, another major monsoon feature, the offshore trough along the west coast, persists and runs down from the Konkan coast to Kerala coast.
Apart from these, there is also a western disturbance that has just left northwest plains to the east and an offshoot upper air cyclonic circulation over Punjab, for the region to contend with.
The northern limit of monsoon is currently stalled on the western side along Porbandar; Nasik and Gulbarga in central and north peninsular India; and to the east along the Rentachintala, Narsapur, Kalingapatnam, Puri, Dhubri and Gangtok.
The Bay ‘low’ should help drive the monsoon current engage with more areas in east India and adjoining east-central India.
The IMD said conditions are favourable for its further advance over some more parts of Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Orissa, West Bengal, remaining parts of Bay of Bengal and some parts of Bihar, Jharkhand and Chhattisgarh during the next three days.
IMD/ISRO satellite pictures early this morning revealed the presence of convective clouds over parts of east Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Telangana, Chhattisgarh, Bihar, Jharkhand, Gangetic West Bengal, Orissa, the Northeastern States, south peninsular India, southeast Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal.