Fresh evidence in support of the outlook of the seasonal wet weather spilling into first of week of March is now available.
India Meteorological Department (IMD) has notified the anticipated arrival of a fresh western disturbance across the north-west border by Monday (February 27).
RAIN, SNOW
This is expected to bring an assortment of wet and snowing weather to the hilly regions of north-west India and parts of the plains.
Simultaneously, IMD has also hinted the propagation of a counterpart wave from the east across south Bay of Bengal into south peninsular India. This easterly wave may set up showers over parts this part of the peninsula.
Global models of the US National Centres for Environmental Prediction and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society at Columbia University too have endorsed this outlook.
Meanwhile, a leading private forecaster based in the US has sought to support a less-than-normal outlook for the Indian monsoon this season to start with.
MONSOON OUTLOOK
It seemed to blame the emerging negative phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (in which the east of the basin warms compared to the west).
The forecast outlook for the negative phase of the IOD was given out by the Japan-based researcher and scientist Prof Toshio Yamagata.
The La Nina pattern will fade to neutral this summer as tropical waters in the Pacific warm and that this warming will extend into the eastern Indian Ocean, the US forecaster said.
This could diminish tropical moisture inflow into mainland India and cut back on rains. Another contrarian weather feature is the above-average Himalayan snow cover.
COOLER SUMMER
This would delay the onset of the spring/summer and portends less-than-ideal warming of the mainland, which is a must for the monsoon pressure gradient to build over land.
Prof Yamagata too had alluded to this emerging situation, predicting that India could likely experience a cooler-than-normal summer this year.
Meanwhile on Wednesday, a weather warning by IMD valid for Thursday said that heavy rain or snowfall would break out one or two places over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh.
The causative western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir persisted and would affect the western Himalayan region on Thursday, it added.
Keywords: Weather report
