Outlook on the monsoon has scarcely changed on Monday, with expected revival likely to happen over the next couple of days.

Global weather models have elevated probabilities for rain to begin along the west as ‘distinctly enhanced' from Tuesday or Wednesday.

MONSOON REVIVAL

These provide the nearest possible indicators for a revival of the monsoon, which is forecast to become dominant towards the weekend.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) satellite imageries showed convective clouds rising over the Andaman Sea, south Bay of Bengal and central Arabian Sea.

Otherwise, all other monsoonal indicators looked down over mainland India, with hitherto heightened activity in northeast India too having tapered off.

The offshore trough along has also become less marked in terms of its capacity to host sustained monsoon flows.

But it can suddenly becoming active with flows picking up, which is expected to happen over the next few days.

RAIN OUTLOOK

An IMD outlook until Thursday said that rainfall would occur at many places over Kerala, coastal Karnataka, Konkan, Goa and the Andaman and Nicobar Islands.

Rain or thundershowers would also break out occur at one or two places over rest south peninsular India.

In particular, north Andhra Pradesh is likely to witness a surge in rainfall from Wednesday itself.

Rain or thundershowers have been forecast at many places over sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and the Northeastern States.

One or two places over Madhya Pradesh, Chhattisgarh, Orissa, Gangetic West Bengal, interior Maharashtra and east Gujarat may also witness thundershowers.

INTENSIFIED MONSOON

An extended outlook valid until Monday next said that the rainfall activity would further escalate along the west coast, interior peninsula and adjoining east India.

The persisting cyclonic circulation in the west-central Bay of Bengal would become crucial for making any informed prediction on the progress of monsoon, sources said.

The IMD said on Monday that the northern limit of monsoon continued to be stuck along Harnai, Satara, Belgaum, Agumbe, Madikeri, Kodaikanal and Gangtok.

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on June 11, 2012)
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