It is becoming increasingly probable that the monsoon would be in a deficit of at least 25 per cent even as the season runs into the first 10 days of the make-or-break July.

A global weather model indicated that extreme west Rajasthan would be devoid of any significant rainfall right until July 24.

SPELL WITHERS

The hyperactive spell over central and adjoining east India too has moderated, but a rain head from here is predicted to travel west into west towards Gujarat.

The system is located this morning over east Madhya Pradesh; it would travel over west Madhya Pradesh, north Gujarat and adjoining southwest Rajasthan over the next few days.

All these regions would get varying amounts of rainfall, especially parts of north Gujarat, which have not yet seen particularly good rainfall.

Southwest Rajasthan too would benefit, but not west Rajasthan, says the forecast. This region would continue to remain largely dry into the next week.

LITTLE RAIN

During this period, there is a much drying up of large parts of the rest of the country except the west coast and fringes of the foothills of the Himalayas.

Some rains may fall over the peninsular India, especially over the southeast coast after the Bay of Bengal sends in a rain wave.

But this may be too little and too late, and may not be sufficient to cover the 31 per cent deficit in peninsular India.

Meanwhile, the regional deficits are 12 per cent over east India and 26 per cent in central India even after a productive monsoon session during the last week.

The deficit is as high as 47 per cent in northwest India, and this would continue to be a worrying aspect.

The overall deficit for the country as a whole is 26 per cent as of yesterday. ()

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on July 8, 2012)
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