The monsoon is forecast to strengthen during the first week of August and is expected to bring more rains to central India adjoining east India.
The flows would be pulled across central India and adjoining peninsula by two storms, ‘Saola’ and ‘Damrey,’ raging in South China Sea/west Pacific.
The Indian monsoon has matured enough to hold some of these flows and steer them back to mainland thanks to the weather systems in the Bay of Bengal.
A few weather models see a low-pressure area/monsoon depression taking shape to commandeer the flows in this manner and bring rains back to central India. Parts of the north peninsula (southwest Maharashtra, north interior Karnataka) may also receive some rain during this period. So too parts of Gujarat and Rajasthan, apart from Delhi and Uttar Pradesh.
Meanwhile, indications are that July may leave a deficit ranging between 15-20 per cent.
Weather watchers are looking for clues to the pattern for August to see how deficit-ridden northwest India and southern peninsula are placed.
Forecast outlook by leading global agencies do not signal any major deviation from this pattern for August-September-October.
The Busan, South Korea-based Asia-Pacific Climate Centre puts this in perspective in its month-wise analysis for the three months.
For August, it is going to be below to well below normal for northwest India (including west Madhya Pradesh) except Jammu and Kashmir. Normal to excess rains are indicated for southern Maharashtra, Telangana, north interior Karnataka, Rayalaseema, Orissa and Gangetic West Bengal.
Most of the rain to fall here would likely emerge from the building monsoon activity during this week and possibly into next.
The monsoon has been benign to the east of the country until now. Orissa, Chhattisgarh and Andhra Pradesh are in the green (‘normal’ rains defined as 20 per cent to either side of median).
Eastern parts of Maharashtra (Vidarbha), Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh too have received normal rains in this manner.