A day after the India Meteorological Department (IMD) announced a drought year, a low-pressure area has sprung up over northwest Bay of Bengal.

This will predictably bring more rain to central India and also adjoining north peninsular India (north Karnataka, Telangana) over the next few days.

TO STOP SHORT

But the system is shown to stop short of entering Gujarat and instead steered away from west Madhya Pradesh towards further north (west Uttar Pradesh, Delhi).

This is not the first time that incoming ‘low’s have behaved in this manner and deprived Gujarat and Rajasthan of their due share of monsoon rain.

Forecast outlook until the middle of the month also indicates the same – rains staying clear of west and adjoining north-west India as well as interior peninsula.

The only consolation is that Uttar Pradesh and Bihar are predicted to receive some rain during the period, aided by a follow-up low-pressure area in the Bay. In fact, the IMD has indicated meteorological developments that could signal rains retreating in this manner to the foothills while being active on the west coast elsewhere.

WEATHER WARNING

A weather warning said that heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over Jammu division of Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Uttar Pradesh, Chhattisgarh and Orissa during the next two days.

An extended warning valid for the next week said that rains would lash many places over central and adjoining north peninsular India, the North-eastern States and the west coast.

But the western Himalayan region and east India are likely to witness a reduction in the intensity of the rains during this period. Meanwhile, an update from the Australian Bureau of Meteorology said that climate indicators in the tropical Pacific remained at values near the threshold of an El Nino.

EL NINO

It also noted the presence of a rain-driving Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave over the Pacific Ocean. The wave rolls over Indian Ocean first; given its prominence now in the Pacific, it should signal a temporary reduction in rainfall across the northern Indian Ocean.

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on August 3, 2012)
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