As expected, southeast Bay of Bengal has lobbed a fresh low-pressure area with good prospects for strengthening over next two days.

Weathermen are watching its behaviour for any signal suggesting growth to levels matching predecessor cyclones during this season.

RAIN DEFICIT

Tamil Nadu, which has totted up a rain deficit of 29 per cent, hopes to remedy the situation since most of the activity is forecast to take place in its own backyard.

Same is the case with Lakshadweep, south and north interior Karnataka and Madhya Maharashtra (in percentage figures of 50; 34; 24 and 38 respectively).

Kerala managed to get into the ‘normal’ rainfall category after a rain wave emerged from equatorial Indian Ocean (south of Sri Lanka) and generated intermittent wet spells. The country, as a whole, has recorded excess rainfall of 32 per cent as on November 27 (Friday last).

This also indicated how parts of interior peninsula listed above have been bypassed with the cyclones spiriting away available moisture to rain it own elsewhere.

TRACK TO WEST

Consensus forecasts suggest the latest ‘low’ will move along a mostly west track towards extreme south-east Tamil Nadu and adjoining Sri Lanka.

They also signal to the possibility of the system parking itself over south-west Bay within an earshot of these areas and strengthening.

US military and European models suspect that the system might just reach the strength of a minimal cyclone by the weekend.

An interesting aspect is the possibility of another weather system moving in from southeast Bay of Bengal towards west-central Bay, off Tamil Nadu and Andhra coasts, by this time.

PARALLEL SYSTEM?

This too will have been endowed with features that should elevate it to the status of at least a depression (if not a full-fledged cyclone), if initial forecasts are anything to go by.

Rain or thundershowers may break out at many places over Tamil Nadu during next two days and increase thereafter, India Met Department said.

Outlook for Monday suggested heavy rainfall at isolated places over Tamil Nadu after parts of the coast were battered on Sunday.

Telangana, north interior Karnataka, south Chhattisgarh and south Odisha may get a spell or two Tuesday as easterly winds gather strength over these areas.

(This article was published on December 1, 2013)
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