As expected, the India Meteorological Department (IMD) has put the cyclonic circulation in southeast Bay of Bengal under watch for signs of intensification.

This circulation is expected to become a low-pressure area over central parts of south Bay of Bengal during next two days, the IMD said in its update on Monday.

TROUGH IN PLACE

The preparatory trough in the sea lay extended from southeast Bay of Bengal to East-central Bay. The ‘low’ would take advantage of the favourable environment provided by the trough to become ‘more marked’ subsequently, the IMD outlook said, in remarks that suggest intensification.

It did not exactly say to what extent the intensification might take place, but global peers point towards storm development off the Tamil Nadu and Andhra Pradesh coast.

The storm is likely to move north-northeast in the Bay of Bengal and head towards Bangladesh-Myanmar coast, according to initial outlook by these models.

THUNDERSHOWERS

Weather outlook valid until Thursday said that rain or thundershowers may break out at a few places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands on Tuesday and at many places thereafter.

Rain or thundershowers would also occur at one or two places over coastal and south interior Karnataka, Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep.

An extended outlook valid until Monday next said that rainfall activity would continue at one or two places over south peninsular India.

Meanwhile in the north, absence of passing westerly disturbances is expected to prevent large-scale fog conditions from re-emerging.

FOG CONDITIONS

Meteorological conditions are not favourable for development of fog conditions over the Indo-Gangetic plains at least during the next two to three days, the IMD said.

This would also mean that no warming of the atmosphere might happen during this period.

Given this, no significant change in minimum temperatures is expected over northwest, central and east India where the prevailing chill would largely hold.

The situation change for the better with expected arrival of a feeble western disturbance with its low-pressure front-end and associated warmth later during this week.

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on November 12, 2012)
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