The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has extended the window for possible intensification of the low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal.
This should normally be taken to mean lesser confidence in the expected outcome but some of the enabling conditions still hold.
One is the elevated sea-surface temperatures off the Myanmar-Bangladesh coast where the ‘low’ is expected to drive itself into.
Global forecasts do not suggest the system going to hit this coast, but would instead head back into North-central Bay.
The huge distance that separates mainland with the system in the east of Bay would bring dry, continental air flows from northwest into rest of the country. This phase would see most parts, except hills and plains of northwest, go without any significant rain event.
Minimum temperatures were below normal by 4-6 deg Celsius over many parts of Andhra Pradesh, north Karnataka and north Tamil Nadu during the last 24 hours.
The cool north-westerlies fanned into southern peninsula in the absence of forceful easterly to north-easterly winds from the Bay of Bengal.
The lowest minimum of 7.8 deg Celsius was recorded at Amritsar in Punjab.
The dry spell might get broken around mid-week next week as the wayward low-pressure area reverts back to Central Bay of Bengal, off the Andhra Pradesh coast.
Meanwhile on Thursday, satellite imagery showed rain-bearing clouds rising over North Andaman Sea and Southeast and East-central Bay of Bengal.
RAIN FOR ANDAMANS
A weather warning said that heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over Andaman and Nicobar Islands during next two days.
Outlook valid until Sunday said that rain or thundershowers would break out over Andaman and Nicobar Islands at many places thereafter.
Extended outlook valid for next seven days said that thundershowers may occur at one or two places over the east coast (by when the ‘low’ returns).
A weather-maker (fog, rain) western disturbance from across the border had dropped anchor over north Pakistan en-route to north-west India.