India Meteorological Department (IMD) appeared to have withdrawn by Sunday evening outlook for cyclone formation in the Bay of Bengal.

The watch had been mounted from earlier in the morning, and continued into later in the afternoon.

DEEP DEPRESSION

The causative low-pressure area in East Bay of Bengal had undergone intensification thrice over during the past couple of days to become a deep depression.

It was expected that it would go on to become the next cyclone after ‘Nilam,’ but dry air wrapping into it has compromised outlook for strengthening.

Had it been located more to the south, the scope could have been more, given wider expanse of seawater.

While taking note, US Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Centre (JTWC) said that the system might still undergo some ‘weak intensification.’

INCONSISTENT TRACK

It was not clear this would give it just the additional windup to attain cyclone status, in which case it would be named ‘Mahasen.’

The IMD said in its evening update that the deep depression remained practically stationary centred over East-central Bay of Bengal.

It was located about 950 km East-northeast of Chennai, 600 km East-southeast of Visakhapatnam and 520 km southeast of Paradip.

RAIN FOR SOUTH

The system would move slowly West-northwestwards before heading for south and west towards south Andhra Pradesh and north Tamil Nadu coasts.

JTWC expected the weakening to start from Wednesday while being over the waters off Chennai and South Andhra Pradesh coasts.

The landfall could end in a whimper next day, but accompanying rains shall spread over south peninsula — south Andhra Pradesh, Tamil Nadu and Kerala.

Satellite imagery showed rain-bearing clouds rising over most parts of north and central Bay of Bengal.

Forecast valid until Wednesday said that rain or thundershowers would lash coastal Andhra Pradesh, South Tamil Nadu and South Kerala and increase thereafter.

NO MAJOR FOG

Meanwhile in the north, a persisting western disturbance over Jammu and Kashmir would bring rain or snow into the region and adjoining Himachal Pradesh.

No significant fog conditions are expected to engulf northwest India during next two to three days.

Maximum and minimum temperatures may start falling over northwest and Central India from Monday as the westerly system drives away to the east.

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on November 18, 2012)
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