A low-pressure area has formed over Andaman Sea on Tuesday and has been put under watch for intensification straight away.
An India Meteorological Department (IMD) outlook said that the ‘low’ would become ‘well marked’ by Wednesday.
But prognosis given out by a number of global models for subsequent phases does not indicate spectacular growth or intensification.
These models, including that of IMD, see the system as breaking up over central Bay in the face of fierce head winds.
The offspring circulations may wallow in the central and south Bay and manage to trigger scattered rain in Tamil Nadu and isolated showers in Kerala.
Odd US Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System forecast sees them converging to set up a minimal cyclone off Tamil Nadu coast by December 1.
Meanwhile on Tuesday, a cyclonic circulation over south Tamil Nadu and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal persisted from overnight.
Satellite imagery showed the presence of rain-bearing clouds over parts of south Bay of Bengal, Andaman Sea and South Arabian Sea and Comorin area.
The IMD has forecast heavy rainfall at one or two places over Andaman and Nicobar islands for next three days.
An outlook valid until Friday said that rain or thundershowers may occur at a few places over coastal Tamil Nadu.Thundershowers may break out also at one or two places over interior Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Lakshadweep.
Towards the north, a weather-setting western disturbance would hit the western Himalayan region and adjoining plains on Wednesday. Dry north-westerly to westerly winds would continue to prevail over Indo-Gangetic plains.
Heavy rain or snow is likely at one or two places over Jammu and Kashmir and Himachal Pradesh on Wednesday and Thursday. Rain or snow is also forecast for Himachal Pradesh and Uttarakhand, before scaling up in intensity. Light rain is likely Punjab, Haryana, Delhi and west Uttar Pradesh during this period.