Monsoon has more or less gone into a ‘mute’ mode with the heavy rainfall regime over central and east India withering.

The deficit in east and northeast India has risen to 14 per cent, while adjoining central India has totted up 26 per cent as on date.

Deficit scenario

There has been a slight improvement in the northwest, with the deficit situation ‘improving’ to 43 per cent from 47 per cent a day ago.

The situation over southern peninsula is hardly any better with a deficit of 31 per cent.

As expected, the monsoon has failed to deliver after running more than first week into the crucial month of July.

Worryingly enough, there is no forecast of any significant surge in the rainfall regime save the odd rain head active over east Madhya Pradesh currently.

It is forecast to travel to the west into west Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat during the next few days. But global model forecasts see a drying up of the land except in the Himalayan foothills and adjoining east and northeast India and the west coast.

Stray rains are forecast for the southern peninsula, but do not promise to deliver anything more than the ordinary, the forecasts said.

Monsoon watchers are worried over rain prospects in northwest Gujarat, west Rajasthan, Punjab, Haryana, and Jammu and Kashmir.

Meanwhile, an India Meteorological Department forecast for the next two days suggested heavy rains along western Himalayas and part of east India.

A heavy rainfall warning is in place over Himachal Pradesh, Uttarakhand, east Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Uttar Pradesh on Monday.

Madhya Pradesh and Orissa would come under heavy rainfall on both Monday and Tuesday.

An extended forecast valid until Sunday next (July 15) indicated rains at many places over the west coast, east and central India, the northeast and Uttar Pradesh.

Thundershowers may also break out at many places over western Himalayan region and at a few places over Punjab, Haryana and Uttar Pradesh.

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on July 8, 2012)
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