US weather trackers say Indian monsoon will soon return to normal for the month before dipping slightly lower for the rest of the month.

The rains are expected to get weaker mainly over the interior of South peninsula and parts of its eastern flanks.

HEAVY IN NORTH

But the northern half will continue to receive moderate to heavy rain during this week and the next, with the Himalayan foothills likely to get targeted yet again. Meanwhile, India Met Department statistics showed that parts of East India (Jharkhand and Gangetic West Bengal) and the North-East have fallen into a deficit.

Bihar, Odisha and Chhattisgarh are just managing to hold on. These meteorological subdivisions led a corridor extending right into Tamil Nadu in the South marked by comparatively lower precipitation.

DEFICIT IN EAST

North and Central India have benefited at the cost of North-East since not a single rain-bearing weather system (low-pressure area) emerging from the Bay of Bengal has been able to curl its way into the latter.

There is no forecast either of an existing low-pressure area cutting a lone path in and trigger the usually heavy monsoon rain.

The Met Department said in its outlook for Saturday that heavy to very heavy rainfall would occur at one or two places over Uttarakhand and coastal Karnataka.

Only slightly less intense has been forecast for West Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Himachal Pradesh, Vidarbha, Konkan, Goa, Telangana and Kerala.

NO BIG CHANGE

On Sunday, heavy rainfall may likely lash one or two places over Himachal Pradesh, Konkan, Goa, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.

There is no rain forecast for East or the North-East on any of the three days. This could be likely the situation at least until Friday next, according to the Met Department outlook.

US National Centres for Environmental Prediction suggested the probability of a rain wave entering Odisha coast towards the month-end and pouring it down along the Himalayan foothills to both East and West.

This could bring some welcome rain into the North-East. But the US agency said the West Coast could witness muted activity during this period except in Konkan and Mumbai.

vinson.kurian@thehindu.co.in

(This article was published on July 19, 2013)
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