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Sunday, Nov 30, 2003

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Bullish undertone prevails

K.S. Badri Narayanan

ACC and Gujarat Ambuja saw heavy build up in open positions, indicating a fresh momentum for the cement sector.

THE average daily turnover at the F&O segment spurted to Rs 10,866.2 crore, as against the previous week's figure of Rs 9,673.6 crore. On last Thursday, the F&O segment registered an all-time high turnover of Rs 13,484.20 crore, breaching the previous highest figure of Rs 12,846.3 crore recorded on October 30, which was also the settlement day (October contracts).

This week saw the expiry of November contracts and the introduction of February contracts, which did not see any significant activity.

The market witnessed sharp activity — particularly substantial build-up in open interest positions both in old and new economy counters — indicating that the index is set for a strong move from current levels.

Index futures: With the market returning to bull phase, trading in the Nifty futures improved smartly. Apart from Nifty futures, the CNX-IT futures also witnessed improved buying attention.

Nifty futures: Nifty December futures traded at a premium of close to five points to the spot Nifty, which closed the week at 1615.2; the Nifty December futures closed at 1619.9. There was a huge build-up of positions in the Nifty; the open interest positions jumped from previous week position of 3,112 contracts to 25,131 contracts, indicating the prevailing bullish sentiment. The unmatched order book (Friday's) of the contract also suggests bullish undertone, as the bid side calls outnumbered the ask side by over six times.

CNX-IT futures: The underlying CNX-IT index gained over 6 per cent to 20644.80 as against the previous week close of 19,356.5. The CNX-IT December futures also huge pile up in open positions, which jumped to 790 contracts as against the previous week position of 20 contracts. The December contracts closed at 20,752.1, a premium of over 107 points.

Stock futures: As the market was in full bloom, activity across the sectors — cement, banking, IT and auto — picked up further momentum. Contracts on Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Tata Power, Reliance, Satyam Computer, Infosys, M&M, ACC, Gujarat Ambuja Cements, HPCL, GAIL India, MTNL, Maruti, HDFC Bank, Andhra Bank, Punjab National Bank and ICICI Bank witnessed heavy activity.

ACC and Gujarat Ambuja saw heavy build up in open positions, indicating a fresh momentum for the cement sector. Open interest in ACC jumped to 3,070 contracts (320 contracts) and in Gujarat Ambuja to 5,942 contracts (460 contracts). Both the counters closed the week in premium to their underlying respective underlying equities by over three points.

Banking counters, which were quiet for some time, looked up on a fresh bout of buying. HDFC Bank and Andhra Bank were quite impressive among them. Open interest position in HDFC Bank December contract jumped to 476 contracts (5 contracts), It closed at Rs 306.65 as against the underlying close of Rs 302.60.

Index options: As the Nifty breached the 1600 mark, the December Nifty 1640, 1620 and the 1600 strikes turned active among call options. Among the puts, the December 1600, 1550 and the 1580 strikes turned active during the course of the week.

The out-of-the money (OTM) 1640 calls closed the week at Rs 27.85 as against the previous week close of Rs 16.40. Open interest positions also improved in the contract. The in-the-money (ITM) 1600 calls closed the week at Rs 48.45 (Rs 22.45) and also saw a good build-up in open interest positions. On the other hand, the Nifty 1600 puts (OTM) closed sharply lower at Rs 29.75 (Rs 80); open interest position also improved sharply in the contract.

Equity options: Contracts on Tata Motors, Tata Steel, Satyam Computer, Reliance, Infosys, ACC, M&M, HLL and HPCL witnessed heightened activity.

The Tata Steel December 360 and the 370 strikes, the Tata Motor 420 and the 410 strikes, and the December 340 strike on Satyam were the most active among the call options. Among the puts, the Tata Steel 360 strike, the December 400 strike on Tata Motors and the December 320 strike on Satyam Computer turned more active during the course of the week.

Note: The NSE circular on Friday on applicable exposure limit for derivative counters indicated no change in the margin levels.

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