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B. Krishnakumar

I am holding City Union Bank (bough at Rs 54). Kindly indicate the outlook for the company. — Srikanth Matrubai

City Union Bank (Rs 54.1): The near-term outlook does not appear too positive. The stock has been stuck in a narrow range in the past few weeks.

A break from this range would impart strong momentum in the direction of the breakout. Only a close above Rs 65 would impart positive trend. A drop below Rs 49 would have bearish implications and could push the scrip to the Rs 42-43 range.

Remain invested with a stop loss for at least a portion of the holding at Rs 49. Considering that the stock could stage a comeback even after dropping to the Rs 42-43 range, it would be worth the risk to retain a portion of the holding without any stop loss.

However, investors with a relatively small holdings or those who are risk averse could cut exposures on a drop below Rs 49.

I hold Canara Bank at an average price of Rs 125. Should I book losses or continue to hold? — Krishnamurthy Sarode

Canara Bank (Rs 123.6): There appears to be limited downside risk from present levels. The stock could drop to the Rs 104-106 range in the worst-case scenario.

The drop to the Rs 104-106 range would be valid as long as the stock trades below Rs 132. However, the stock could recover to the Rs 155-160 range even if it drops to the Rs 104-106 zone. Given this backdrop, it would be worthwhile to remain invested.

A stop loss for a portion of the holdings could be placed at Rs 111.

Only a drop below Rs 102 would negate the positive outlook and would warrant further dilution of holdings.

I am holding some shares of TV 18 and Rayban. Should I exit at the present level or hold for some more time. What is the possible upward target for both? — Rajani

TV 18 (Rs 193.3): The outlook is positive and a move towards the Rs 215-220 range appears likely.

There is no reason to sell this stock in a hurry. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 175.

A trailing stop loss may be used in the event of a run-up in price.

Rayban (Rs 57.6): It is difficult to ascertain the outlook for the stock based on the recent price pattern.

Though the recent price move does not preclude the possibility of an upmove, there is no clear indication at the moment. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 52.

What is the outlook for Apollo Hospital and Blue Dart? — G. Singh

Apollo Hospital (Rs 164.6): Though the overall outlook appears positive, a drop below Rs 150 would impart bearishness.

On the upside, a break above Rs 185 would have positive implications and could push the stock to the Rs 215-220 range. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 150.

Conservative investors could have a stop loss at a slightly higher level of Rs 159.

Blue Dart (Rs 137): The stock was covered last week's edition.

The earlier positive view remains unchanged. A rally to the Rs 175-180 range appears likely. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 117.

Please let me know the prospects of MTNL bought it at Rs 130. — V.S.Chakravarthy

MTNL (Rs 120.5): The stock has been on a major downtrend in the recent years.

There is still no evidence of the reversal of this downward trend.

Considering that the stock has sought support at the Rs 104-106 range on three occasions earlier, there is a possibility of a short-term uptrend. On the upside, the stock could face resistance at the Rs 130-132 range, beyond which Rs 138-140 could be the next resistance zone.

A drop below this support range would result in the continuation of the downtrend. Considering that stock could move up to the first resistance level of the Rs 130-132 range, it would be better to adopt a wait-and-watch approach. A trailing stop loss could be used once the stock moves above Rs 140. A drop below Rs 103 would warrant dilution of holdings.

What is the outlook for Tata Teleservices? — Abhishek Porwal, P.Saravanan & KRV & Company

Tata Teleservices (Rs 19): The stock has been extensively covered earlier. It has also moved to the price targets that were mentioned before.

The overall outlook remains positive and a move to the Rs 27-28 range appears likely. However, the stock could drop to the Rs 16-17 range in the near term.

This would be a good opportunity for investors to include the stock in the portfolio. The positive outlook would be negated only if the share price drops below Rs 14.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 14.

Price dips could be used to take fresh exposures with a stop loss at Rs 14.

I have purchased Seshasayee Paper at Rs 67 and IOC at Rs 360. What is outlook for the two stocks? — Ulag Thyagarajan & Ayan

Seshsayee Paper (Rs 92.2): Taking into account your entry price and the upside potential for the stock, there is no reason to sell the stock in a hurry.

The stock is likely to rest the earlier major high of Rs 122 recorded in 1995. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 83.

Indian Oil (Rs 377.4): The stock appears headed towards the Rs 440-450 band in the near term. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 345.

Fresh buying may also be considered with a stop loss at Rs 364. Only a drop below Rs 320 would negate the positive outlook.

I bought Polaris Software at Rs 147. Please advise if I should hold or sell? — Abhishek Porwal

Polaris Software (Rs 183.2): Considering that the share price could move to the near-term target zone of Rs 220-225 range, there is no need to sell the stock now.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 165.

What is the outlook for Saregama and how far can it move up? — Rahul Gupta

Saregama India (Rs 65.3): After a major downtrend, the stock appears to have bottomed out recently at Rs 44.

It appears to have commenced a new bullish move from the low of Rs 44. If this view pans out over a period of time, the stock could shortly move past the Rs 100 mark.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 52. Long-term investors can accumulate this stock in small dosages. The only caveat is that a drop below Rs 50 would negate the positive outlook and could push the stock to lower levels.

Is it worth holding Bank of India bought at Rs 56 till April? Should I sell at current level or hold Pfizer bought at Rs 427? — R.Sundharlingum

Bank of India (Rs 56.6): The price movement in the next few days would determine the outlook for the stock.

A drop below Rs 51 could pave the way for a slide to the Rs 46-47 range. On the other hand, a move past Rs 64 could push the stock back into a bull orbit.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 51. If the stop loss gets triggered, fresh buying may be considered on the evidence of support around the Rs 44-45 range.

Pfizer (Rs 451.8): The price action has been very choppy in the past few weeks.

This has made it difficult to arrive at a judgment as to the near-term outlook for the stock.

While a drop to lower levels of Rs 380-390 remains the preferred view, a close above Rs 480 would negate the bearish outlook.

Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 440.

I bought Mahavir Spinnning at Rs 97. Please advise about the prospects. — Sanjeev

Mahavir Spinning (Rs 146.8): Despite the recent rally, there is still some upside potential from current levels. A move to the Rs 155-160 range appears likely.

However, the stock has reached extreme overbought zone in the weekly chart. This could trigger some downward correction shortly.

Conservative investors could tighten their stop loss and contemplate at least partial profit booking at higher levels.

Fresh buying may be considered on declines once the anticipated correction sets in.

I purchased Cipla at Rs 729 and Colgate at Rs 149. Please advise me the future outlook of these stocks. — N.V. Rao & Shah

Cipla (Rs 1201.4): The stock has moved to the earlier mentioned (edition dated September 25) price target of the Rs 1250-1300 range. The overall outlook remains bullish and a move to the next target zone of Rs 1375-1400 appears likely. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 1100.

Colgate (Rs 139): The stock has been confined to a narrow trading range in the recent weeks. It has formed a double-bottom pattern at Rs 133. A breach of this level could result in a downtrend while a move past Rs 155 would impart positive momentum. Remain invested with a stop loss at Rs 130.

Readers can send in their queries, on not more than two companies, to

techtrail@thehindu.co.in

Queries can also be sent by post to:

Tech Trail, 859/860 Kasturi Buildings, Anna Salai, Chennnai 600 002

We would endeavour to answer as many queries as possible. However, constraints of space will limit the responses featured under this column.

(Note: The analysis and opinion expressed in these columns are based on the technical analysis of the past price behaviour. Analysis and price targets are based on the Elliott Wave Analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading)

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