Financial Daily from THE HINDU group of publications
Sunday, Dec 28, 2003

Investment World
Features
Stocks
Port Info
Archives

Group Sites

Investment World - Stocks
Markets - Recommendation
Info-Tech - Stocks


HCL Technologies: Hold

Krishnan Thiagarajan

Following the rebalancing of the services portfolio towards application/engineering and probable rebound in technology services, HCL Technologies appears well-positioned for good times ahead. However, sustainability of growth from its organic software business, competition from frontline companies and other extraneous risks remain, says Krishnan Thiagarajan.


Mr. Shiv Nadar, Chairman and Chief Executive Officer, HCL Technologies... Sustainability of the first quarter revenue growth in the coming quarters holds the key to valuation.

SHAREHOLDERS in the HCL Technologies stock may retain their holdings at the current price levels. Since the announcement of a robust first quarter revenue growth on October 31, the HCL Technologies stock has run-up by nearly 33 per cent.

Though the fundamentals are showing signs of improvement, this sharp surge in the stock price has to be borne in mind. Fresh exposures may be avoided as the potential for significant capital appreciation from these price levels may be limited.

The embedded positives

The strong sequential (quarter-on-quarter) consolidated revenue growth of 19 per cent (and 12 per cent excluding the merger of HCL Infosystems software division) in 2003-04 first quarter have raised hopes of a turnaround in the HCL Technologies stock. Incidentally, it was also the highest sequential growth in the last two years. But the sustainability of a turnaround hinges on a call on three factors:

  • Portfolio re-balancing: Is the re-balancing exercise of the services portfolio, as spelt out by the HCL Technologies Chairman, Mr Shiv Nadar, in the second quarter of 2001-2002 complete?

    According to this, the company was expected to shift its focus (to some extent) from the technology development to application and products/engineering services. Over the past eight quarters since the restructuring announcement, the contribution of application/engineering services rose to 41 per cent of consolidated revenues in 2003-04 first quarter from 27 per cent in the 2001-02 second quarter.

    Over the same period, the contribution of technology development services fell to 25 per cent from 44 per cent. And during this entire period, the contribution of product services remained relatively steady between 14 per cent and 18 per cent. It is quite obvious that portfolio re-balancing is largely complete and it is likely that this trend may be sustainable in future.

  • Technology service rebound: As the global information technology spending patterns show signs of an improvement in 2004, is HCL Technologies geared to ride this uptrend? As the focus of HCL Technologies had shifted towards the enterprise space, it appears to have been slow at enhancing its exposure in the technology development and software product services relative to its peers such as Wipro. The contribution of these two services declined to 41.4 per cent in 2003-04 first quarter from 44 per cent in 2003-04 fourth quarter.

    But given the technology competence in verticals such as semi-conductors, scale-ups in the key existing accounts and some new account wins, the company has the potential to ride the wave in technology service recovery, if it happens in a big way. As the billing rates are also higher, it will also have a favourable impact on its operating profit margins.

  • Operating margin /earnings cushion: As the blended (offshore and onsite) billing rates of HCL Technologies are lower vis-à-vis its frontline peers, it faces a lower risk of billing rate pressure. On the upside, a sustained improvement in the technology environment in the US is expected to improve billing rates for the company.

    In 2003-04 first quarter, both onsite and offshore utilisation rates were up from the previous quarter. But, considering that offshore utilisation rates has further room for improvement in line with rising revenues, it will have a positive impact on operating margins in the coming quarters.

    Secondly, the integration of the software business unit (consisting of package implementation and systems integration) of HCL Infosystems with HCL Technologies is almost complete. The package implementation business of HCL Infosystems is likely to offer a positive trigger to operating margins over the next couple of quarters.

    Finally, HCL Technologies has cash and equivalents of over $ 325 million at the end of 2003-04 first quarter. Recently, HCL Technologies decided to divest its full equity stake in the HCL Perot Systems joint venture to Perot Systems for $105.3 million (Rs 480 crore) for all-cash consideration.

    The resolution of this two-year long tussle will help the company to focus better on its core organic software business.

    Moreover, the company has recently adopted a policy of considering its dividend payout on a quarterly basis. Given its already strong cash position, it may be important to monitor the use of the divestment proceeds in the near future.

    Risks and challenges

    Despite a good improvement in fundamentals, HCL Technologies will continue to encounter the following risks and challenges to growth:

  • Growth in organic business: After recording a sequential drop for two successive quarters, the organic software business of HCL Technologies clocked a strong 12 per cent rise in the first quarter of 2002-03. Unlike the inorganic software business (consisting, say, of Deutsche Software and HCL Jones Apparel), which has been consistently logging good growth rates, the organic business has shown a fluctuating trend in performance. This has affected its consolidated financial performance. However, the long process of client rationalisation which the company has undertaken over the past year and a half is also nearing completion. Sustaining this trend of organic growth holds the key to future growth in revenues and profitability.

  • Other extraneous risks: Like other frontline players, HCL Technologies also remains exposed to the risks of a slowdown in the US economic recovery, appreciation in the value of the rupee and fears of an outsourcing backlash affecting its software services and IT-enabled service operations. It is also expected to face heightened competition from frontline and multinational vendors as offshoring gets mainstream in an election year in the US.

    Article E-Mail :: Comment :: Syndication

  • Stories in this Section
    NSDL: Non-cash corporate actions


    ING Vysya Best Years Retirement Plan
    Stocks in 2003: Partying like there is no tomorrow
    How we handled the bull market
    Stocks in 2004: Steam left in the bull run
    Rationale for indexing
    Investors in oil stocks need to watch out
    Annus Mirabilis for investment
    MF performance in 2003 — It's been party time for equity funds
    HDFC Prudence Fund: Invest
    Franklin Prima: Buy in phased manner
    Alliance Basic Industries
    HSBC Equity Fund: Hold
    Tata Mutual launches floating rate fund
    India Cements: Buy (High Risk)
    Grauer & Weil: Buy
    HCL Technologies: Hold
    MRF: Buy
    Indian Hotels: Buy
    Madras Cements: Buy
    Birla Corp: Buy (High Risk)
    Focus of the week
    Overbought Nifty moves into unchartered territory
    Upside potential in Reliance
    Query corner
    Question `n' auto
    Equity outlook: Optimism in the air
    Nifty peaks
    Bullish undertone in Nifty
    Using futures & options
    Futures rule firm
    2003: Futures and options on a high
    Jubilant Organosys: Yielding for a year
    `Paints still perceived as luxury product'
    Tax planning for VRS
    Sixty and scouting
    Sangam (India): Avoid
    Shortsell


    The Hindu Group: Home | About Us | Copyright | Archives | Contacts | Subscription
    Group Sites: The Hindu | Business Line | The Sportstar | Frontline | The Hindu eBooks | Home |

    Copyright © 2003, The Hindu Business Line. Republication or redissemination of the contents of this screen are expressly prohibited without the written consent of The Hindu Business Line