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Sunday, Dec 28, 2003

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Annus Mirabilis for investment

Suresh Krishnamurthy

Anything that the investor touched in 2003 turned to gold. This midas touch however is unlikely to work in 2004. Risk containment measures are likely to play an important role. It is necessary to remember that what you lose in a market downturn will decide how much you add to your wealth than what you gained in 2003.

WE would have to go back a long way to identify a year that has been as productive as 2003 for investments. Prices of almost all asset classes have appreciated significantly during 2003. Equities, debt, real estate, gold, a number of commodities such as oil, chemicals and steel and even the rupee have all delivered more than what they promised at the beginning of the year. Even a staid instrument, such as the tax saving bond, turned out to be an attractive investment.

Guaranteed return insurance products such as Bima Nivesh Triple Cover and Jeevan Shree (in its earlier version), to name a couple, too, have delivered value. Even monthly income plans, a scourge of investors for a few years now, have generated attractive returns. Investments in the employees provident fund was a winner with the trustees of the fund deciding to keep interest rate at 9.5 per cent for FY04. For those seeking a degree of stable income upon retirement, the LIC's Varishtha Bima Yojana, which offers an interest rate of 9 per cent guaranteed by the Government, offered solace in the wake of declining interest rates over the past three years.

A dream year

It has not been a dream year for investment options alone. Almost all investment strategies have delivered returns.

  • In equities, dividend yield strategies have paid off. Value investing has delivered humungous returns. Growth investing has beaten the index. The strategy of buying "growth at a reasonable price" is also a winner.

    Large-cap focus has delivered returns and so have mid- and small-cap focus. A number of sector funds, such as UTI Petro Fund, SBI Pharma Fund and Alliance Basic Industries, are in substantially positive territory in terms of returns. Index investing has delivered returns too.

  • In asset allocation, equity orientation has produced returns, tactical asset allocation has done well; constant asset allocation practiced by most balanced funds has also worked out well.

  • In debt, government securities and corporate securities — be they short- or long-term — have generated higher than anticipated returns.

    Choice is important: The year also underlined the importance of security selection for investors. Although almost all asset classes and investment options paid off, the extent of returns generated by an investor was to a large extent dependent on the particular investment option that was chosen. Research on investments in developed countries suggests that choice of security is not as important. However, in India, the choice of a particular security has always been important and 2003 has not been any different. For instance, in equities, index investing again proved to be a loser in a relative sense; a choice of actively managed funds would have been more rewarding. Funds such as Prima, HDFC Equity, Reliance Vision and Sun F & C Resurgent India, to name a few, stood out with their returns outpacing the markets and peer funds by a large margin.

    Challenges for 2004: With equity prices rising substantially, it would appear that investors could hardly have taken a wrong step in 2003. But this has sown the seeds for a maze of challenges in 2004. With asset prices scaling peaks, future returns from all these asset classes will necessarily have to be significantly lower than what was achieved in 2003. If the economy sputters, the ride could even become jerky as some of them could turn out to be losers. Given this backdrop, investors should concentrate on minimising risks.

    This is because the key to building wealth is more dependent on losing less in a downturn than gaining substantially in an upturn. What you gained when stocks went up 100 per cent could be lost with a decline of just 50 per cent. In this backdrop, the accompanying box provides a list `do's and don'ts' that would prove useful, and could to be practiced in 2004.

    Even if you practice disciplined investing, 2004 will be a challenging year for investing. Investors might even struggle to beat inflation if they are considerably invested in debt. So extra care in nurturing investments will be needed. However, if the wheels of the economy do grind at a faster pace then nasty surprises can be avoided.

    Dos and don'ts for 2004

    Here is a short list of what one should focus on the `do' side:

  • Prune exposure to equities frequently by routing fresh money into debt and also by booking profits.

  • If equity investing is needed, then invest in the market in phases; do not put all your money at one go.

  • The time for balanced funds has come. HDFC Prudence is the best choice.

  • If you are not comfortable with direct investing in equities, invest through mutual funds. A short list of options that come with an impressive track record are: HDFC Equity, Templeton India Growth, Franklin India Prima, Franklin Bluechip, Alliance Basic Industries, UTI Petro Fund and HDFC Top 200. For the conservative long-term investor, Birla Dividend Yield Plus and Morgan Stanley Growth are also suitable options.

  • 2004 could well turn out to be the year of floating rate mutual funds

  • Continue to utilise small savings schemes as much as possible.

  • Be satisfied with single digit returns even from equities.

    Some don'ts

    The list of what one should not do is equally important:

  • Wean yourself away from bank deposits. Retail investments in mutual funds are a fraction of the investments in bank term deposits. This will not help beat inflation. So avoid bank term deposits as far as possible

  • Avoid investing in index funds.

  • Avoid fund of funds or asset allocation plans. Retail investor friendly, value-enhancing fund of funds or asset allocation plans are still not available.

  • Do not mix insurance with investment. Stay clear of unit-linked insurance. Take term insurance and invest through mutual funds.

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