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IVRCL Infrastructures: Hold

G. Madhan


Rising infrastructure spending augurs well for the company's fortunes.

SHAREHOLDERS may retain their holdings in IVRCL Infrastructures. Since the beginning of November, the stock has appreciated sharply (over 100 per cent) and now hovers at about Rs 160. IVRCL's strong presence in the water segment, its robust order-book position, and improving fundamentals augur well for its earnings growth. That, however, may not translate into growth in per share earnings as the equity is set to expand significantly.

Impressive performance

IVRCL recorded impressive revenue and earnings growth in the October-December quarter of 2003:

  • The company's income from operations and post-tax earnings saw a robust growth compared to the corresponding previous quarter. Evaluation over a nine-month period also revealed that both revenue and earnings grew over 100 per cent.

  • The operating profit margin (OPM) also improved during the recently concluded quarter. A nine-month comparison, however, revealedthat OPM dropped by 0.6 percentage points.

  • The net profit margin has seen an upward movement both in the recent quarter as well as during the nine-month period.

    Water: Key demand driver

    Focus on infrastructure projects, particularly water supply schemes, holds the key for IVRCL, as they contribute a major chunk of the company's revenues.

    he opportunities in this segment are quite huge. For instance, the aggregate budgeted allocation by Union and State governments for water supply projects was Rs 12,895 crore for 2003-04, representing a rise of about 12 per cent over the previous year.

    International financing agencies such as the World Bank and the Asian Development Bank (ADB) are also taking an active role in funding water supply projects. For instance, the ADB recently funded three projects worth Rs 79 crore, all of which which were bagged by IVRCL. In the interim Budget too, the Finance Minister proposed accelerated integrated drinking water supply schemes for major cities such as Delhi, Bangalore, Chennai and Hyderabad.

    The company's order-book position is also strong. At end-November 2003, it was Rs 1,500 crore, with completion periods of 30-36 months. In addition, the company has also pre-qualified itself for projects worth more than Rs 4,000 crore. These factors augur well for maintaining revenue growth in the next couple of years.

    Expansion of equity base

    The company recently raised Rs 100 crore by issuing 80 lakh equity shares at Rs 125 to two FIIs. The expanded equity base is likely to have several positive outcomes. They are:

  • The preferential issue will increase IVRCL's net worth. This will enable it to compete for large projects, particularly build-operate-transfer and annuity-based road projects, which have net worth as a key criterion.

  • IVRCL has indicated that the proceeds of the offer are for buying construction materials. According to the company, this will enable it to cut cost on material purchase by about 20 per cent.

  • The proceeds of the issue are to be used to retire high-cost debts. This will in turn help the company reduce interest expenses and improve profit margins.

    On the other hand, earnings growth may not necessarily support the expansion in equity in the near term. Investors must also consider the following risks:

  • IVRCL is characterised by low floating stock. Investors may find it difficult to enter and exit at desired prices.

  • Uneven revenue growth hamper IVRCL's earnings growth. This is because there is always a time lag between tendering processes, the execution of the project and the actual cash inflow.

  • The revenues and, in turn, the earnings of these companies are to a large extent determined by government projects. This is reflected in the relatively higher sundry debtors position at end-March 2003. This will affect cash flows. Considering these risks, investors need not contemplate exposures now.

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