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Infosys Technologies: Buy on declines

Krishnan Thiagarajan


(From left) Mr Nandan Nilekani, CEO, Mr N. R. Narayana Murthy, Chief Mentor and Mr T. V. Mohandas Pai, CFO_ Enhanced levels of offshoring have led to a substantial scaling up of projected revenues and earnings for FY-05.

SHAREHOLDERS can retain their exposure in the Infosys Technologies stock. Fresh exposure may, however, be contemplated on declines. An impressive 15 per cent sequential growth in revenues and post-tax earnings in the second quarter ended September 30, 2004 and a robust upward revision in the financial outlook for the year, inspire confidence.

The operating metrics reflect that a combination of increased offshore efforts, healthy service mix of both verticals and service offerings and a robust addition of clients have helped bolster the financial performance. This trend is likely to sustain over the next couple of quarters.

A spirited leap...

Infosys Technologies has upped the ante in the offshoring arena vis-a-vis its frontline peers.

In revising the guidance for the second consecutive quarter, Infosys has now forecast revenue growth of 47-48 per cent at Rs 7,132-7,160 crore and per share earnings (EPS) of 43 per cent at Rs 67 for 2004-05. The latest tranche of upward revision reflects 6-7 per cent rise in revenues and per share earnings respectively over the last one announced in July.

To put this quantum growth in perspective, it is significant to note two elements:

  • Starting off with revenues and EPS growth projections of 24 per cent and 20 per cent at the beginning of 2004-05, after two upward revisions, both the forecast parameters are slated to double for 2004-05.

  • Through this upward revision in revenue guidance by about Rs 400 crore between the second and first quarter, Infosys is expected to symbolically add a medium software company to its fold.

    This rise is after a Rs 730-crore increase in projected revenues in the first quarter.

    Explained by key drivers

    Though the revenues in the second quarter rose 15.3 per cent on a sequential basis, the operating profit margin at 32.1 per cent remained stable during this period. Apparently, a few key elements are working in favour of the company:

    Pricing stability: In the latest quarter, the onsite and offshore billing rates rose by 1.7 per cent and 0.7 per cent, respectively. The management has said that there has been a marginal rise in billing rates, with new clients coming in at 4-5 per cent higher rates over the past three months. Increase in billing rates is, however, not a trend yet.

    Shift towards offshore: In the course of this quarter, the offshore revenue mix improved by 2 percentage points to 50.2 per cent on a sequential basis.

    The strong offshore volume growth of over 15 per cent not only reflects that offshore is getting mainstream, but also the flexibility available to vendors such as Infosys to mix and match its service offerings, say, between enterprise solutions, consulting, application development, maintenance and testing.

    Scalability in client addition: Infosys has not only enjoyed a fairly strong overall client addition in the latest quarter, it has added more clients in the $5, $10 and $20 million category than its key frontline peers.

    This is further proof that offshore is getting mainstream, especially in the US.

    ... in recruitment, too: Despite adding about 5000 employees in the latest quarter, Infosys has managed to keep the utilisation levels (including trainees) above 70 per cent, and, still maintained operating margins in line with the first quarter.

    The outsourcing rhetoric has come down to a large extent in the run-up to the US Presidential elections. The H1B visa cap of 65,000, which was filled up on the first day this year, too may not pose any constraint for Infosys for the next few quarters as it has over 10,000 visas at present. Finally, concerns about rupee appreciation, too, are largely non-existent.

    At the same time, Infosys remains exposed to all its medium-term challenges such as competition from multinational vendors such as Accenture or IBM Global and the ability to successfully widen the range of service lines and offerings, along with the success of their consulting foray.

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