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Weakness ahead in Reliance

B. Krishnakumar

Reliance Ind (Rs 513.4): The stock is yet to close above the crucial positive trigger level of Rs 548. Though it did move past this level on Monday, the break was not too convincing and the stock closed on a weak note at the end of the day's trading. The near-term trend, as a result, remains weak.

A drop to the Rs 485-490 range appears likely. Hold with a stop-loss at Rs 505 and use price rally to reduce exposures. A move past Rs 525 would negate the bearish outlook and would warrant reduction of short positions.

Ranbaxy Labs (Rs 1070): The outlook has turned bearish following the breach of the key support level at Rs 1170. The breach of the stop-loss level should have warranted closure of long positions. The recent price pattern does not indicate that the downward trend move is complete. A drop below Rs 1050 would result in the resumption of the downtrend and a decline to the Rs 870-880 range is not ruled out subsequently. Hold with a stop-loss at Rs 1050. If the stop-loss gets triggered, fresh long positions may be considered on a subsequent move past Rs 1160.

ITC (Rs1254.7): Along with the broad market, this stock too ruled weak. After an intra-day break of the first stop-loss level of Rs 1250, the stock closed above this level on Friday. The crucial stop-loss at Rs 1180, however, remains intact. The earlier view of a rally to the Rs 1450-1500 range levels is still valid. A move past Rs 1300 would be a positive trigger and long positions may be considered subsequently. Hold with a stop-loss at Rs 1180 and fresh exposures may be considered on a move past Rs 1300, with a stop-loss at Rs 1250.

Hindustan Lever (Rs 140.1): The earlier view that the stock is on the verge of completing the downward move is still valid. The stock appears to be tracing out a downward sloping "wedge" pattern or a "diagonal triangle" in the Elliott Wave parlance. Typically, there would a sharp upward move on the completion of this pattern. Stop-loss for a portion of the long positions may be placed at Rs 135 and at Rs 129 for the balance. Risk-seeking investors with a longer time horizon that is typical for traders may place the stop-loss at Rs 129.

Infosys (Rs 1976): The price failed to move past the positive trigger level of Rs 2085-2090 level. It, however, dropped below the lower trigger level of Rs 1990. There is no indication to suggest that the short-term downward trend is complete. Hold with a stop-loss at Rs 1925. The stock appears to be headed towards the Rs 1810-1815 range. Fresh buying may be avoided.

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