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Sunday, Mar 13, 2005

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Weakness beckons Tata Power, HLL

B. Krishnakumar

Tata Power (Rs 393.2): The stock moved in line with expectations.

The earlier view that the price is headed towards Rs 370-380 range is still valid. The stock dropped below the downward trigger price of Rs 400 that was mentioned last week. This is an early indication of the bearish trend ahead.

Short positions may be initiated with a stop-loss at Rs 405. A trailing stop-loss may be employed once the stock seeks lower levels. The bearish outlook would be negated if the stock closes above Rs 416.

Hindustan Lever (Rs 143.3): Contrary to expectations, the stock ruled weak. The stock closed below the negative trigger level of Rs 145. This has imparted weakness and a move to Rs 129-132 range appears likely. Shareholders may remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 142. Exposures may be scaled down on price rally. Short positions may also be considered on upward moves with a stop-loss at Rs 151. Fresh buying may be avoided for the moment.

Reliance Ind (Rs 587.7): The price action was in line with expectations. The stock moved to the target zone of Rs 595-600 and turned weak on Wednesday. A bullish trend would prevail only if the stock closes above Rs 610. Till such time, the stock could either be confined to a narrow trading range or could seek lower levels. The stock appears to be headed towards the immediate support at Rs 560-565 range.

A drop below Rs 545 would have bearish implications. On the upside, a move above Rs 610 would help the stock seek a price target of Rs 625-630 range.

HDFC (Rs 803.8): The price action last week was in alignment with expectations. The stock moved to the target zone of Rs 825-830 and turned weak subsequently. After moving to a high of Rs 830, the stock closed on a weak note on Friday. The stock has a strong support at Rs 780-785 range. Hold with a stop-loss at Rs 780. The stock could move to the next target zone at Rs 845-850 range. A close below Rs 780 would push the stock to Rs 745-750 range.

Infosys (Rs 2,214.6): The stock moved past the target zone of Rs 2,260-2,265. It moved to a high of Rs 2,284 on Tuesday and ruled weak in the remaining three days of the week. The near-term outlook remains weak. A drop to Rs 2,125-2,135 range appears likely.

The short-term bearish view would be negated if the stock closes above Rs 2,285. Shareholders may look for opportunities to reduce exposures. Fresh buying may avoided.

Follow up

Bombay Dyeing (Rs 343.2): There is no change in the view expressed last week. The near-term outlook is weak. A drop to Rs 318-322 range appears likely.

The long-term upward trend would resume on the completion of the expected short-term correction. Last week's view of a rally to Rs 395-400 in the long-term is valid.

The long-term positive outlook would be negated if the stock declines below Rs 309. Remain invested with a stop-loss at Rs 309.

Fresh exposures may be considered on evidence of support at Rs 318-322 band. Alternatively, long positions may also be considered on a move above Rs 373 if the stock fails to seek lower levels.

Ballarpur Industries (Rs 100.9): Though a bearish trend prevailed last week, it has not negated the positive outlook for the stock. The view of a rally to Rs 135-140 range remains valid. Hold with a stop-loss at Rs 95. Fresh buying may be considered on evidence of support at the Rs 95 range. A drop below Rs 95 would push the stock to Rs 88-89 range.

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