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Sunday, May 22, 2005

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Moderate rollover

K.S. Badri Narayanan

THE activity at the F&O segment on the NSE remained sluggish last week despite just ahead of settlement week.

The average daily volumes improved to Rs 9,568 crore as compared to previous week's close figure of Rs 7,307 crore.

Rollover: Rollover of positions was also only moderate; only about 11 per cent of Nifty futures was rolled over. In the case of stock futures, the rollover of position was slightly higher at 15 per cent.

Fair value: The fair value of the Nifty May contracts (without considering dividend yield) works out to about 1989 against the Friday's close of 1987.7 (assuming interest rate at 6 per cent). The FV of June contracts was 1985 (appx) against the close of 1973.7 and for July at 1990 (1970.1 - actual price).

This indicates that farther-month contracts are fairly under-priced with respect to near-month contracts. In this backdrop, buying the farther-month contract and selling the nearer-month one would be beneficial.

FII position: The cumulative FII positions as percentage of total gross market position in the derivative segment remained at 33.3 per cent. They were net sellers during last week till Thursday. Their heavy selling on Wednesday (to the tune of Rs 111.56 crore) turned them to net negative positions although they were net buyers on other three days of the week.

Stock futures: Contracts on Reliance, Tata Steel, SBI, Infosys Technologies, Satyam Computer, TCS, Tata Motors, Maruti and TCS were the more actively traded ones.

  • Most individual stock futures are ruling at a discount to the spot close and have seen the discount widening even further on June contracts.

  • Rollover of positions was relatively healthy on SBI, NTPC, Tata Steel, Reliance Industries and Union Bank of India.

  • Implied volatility displayed a flat trend with puts and calls hovering around the previous week levels, indicating the possibility of the dull trade ahead.

    Put/call ratio - both on open positions-wise as well as volume wise - displayed a mixed trend. They remained at levels that were close to the ones that prevailed last week.

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