The Hindu Business Line : Query Corner

BASF (Rs 230.2): The stock is reacting downward after hitting a high of Rs 250 in early October. The intermediate-term outlook for this stock remains positive as long as it stays in the band between Rs 210 and Rs 250. The stock can move higher to Rs 277 and then Rs 316 over the next three months. Hold with a stop at Rs 208. A fall below Rs 208 will take the stock to Rs 185.

I would like to have your views on Aurobindo Pharma, which, according to my analysis, (trend lines and considering ongoing momentum) is likely to head towards the immediate target zone of Rs 720-722. Please let me know whether my analysis is up to the mark and also let me know the tools that are effective in ascertaining the intermediate- and long- term trend of a particular stock. Sameer Grover

Aurobindo Pharma (Rs 705.1): The scrip is indeed looking strong for the short- term. Short-term targets as per our calculation fall at Rs 702 and then at Rs 777. The previous top at Rs 740 will prove to be an intermittent resistance. As your target of Rs 720 falls between our first two targets, it must be said that your analysis is on the right track.

The same tools used for analysing the short-term trend can be utilised for analysing the intermediate- and long-term trends, too. The commonly used tools are trend lines, trend channels and oscillators, to name three. The only difference is the chart timeframe. For analysing the long-term trend, use monthly charts. For analysing intermediate- to medium-term trends, weekly charts can be used and for forecasting short-term trends, intra-day charts should be used.

I have shares of Solectron Centum at Rs 261. What are the prospects of this company? Praveen Yada

Solectron Centum (Rs 281.4): The stock has gained 126 per cent since it hit a low of Rs 127 in end June. The momentum in this stock continues to be strong. For the short-term, the stock is moving in a narrow range between Rs 260 and Rs 290. A breakout past Rs 295 will take the stock to Rs 345. Hold with a stop at Rs 255.

I would appreciate your opinion on Triveni Engineering. I am holding shares purchased at Rs 79. Vandana Mittal

Triveni Engineering (Rs 55.6): This scrip is spiralling downwards ever since it hit a high of Rs 130 in late March. Short-term resistance for the stock exists at Rs 62. Fresh buys should be made only if the price rallies above this level. A rally past Rs 62 will take the price to Rs 65 and then Rs 74.

Hold with a stop at Rs 45.

I have purchased SREI Infrastructure Finance at Rs 44. I have also purchased Four Soft at Rs 65. Please inform the short-term targets of these stocks. Muthu

SREI Infrastructure Finance (Rs 52.6): The short and medium-term trend in this stock looks promising. The stock is currently consolidating sideways after hitting a high of Rs 55 in mid September. Short-term support exists at Rs 44 and the next support level is Rs 40. Short-term resistance exists at Rs 55. But the stock has the potential to move up beyond Rs 55 to Rs 59 and then Rs 68. Hold with a stop at Rs 45.

Four Soft (Rs 70.1): This counter has made a strong move since it hit a low of Rs 35 in mid June. Short-term chart patterns suggest that the stock can move higher to Rs 79 and then Rs 89 in the short-term. Hold the stock with a stop at Rs 65.

I am holding shares of Siemens bought at the rate of Rs 1,385. I do not mind holding the shares for a long-term or even buying more on declines. I bought some more at Rs 1,130. Please let me know about the future trend in this company. Rajen Bajpai

Siemens (Rs 1,134.4): The scrip shrugged off the 41 per cent decline it recorded in May and June to rally to a new high of Rs 1,408 in late November.

The fall to Rs 1,000 since then has retraced 61.8 per cent of the post-June rally. An intermediate-term low could have been formed at Rs 1,000. Hold your stock with a stop at Rs 990.

If the low of Rs 1,000 holds, the stock can move higher to Rs 1,412 and then Rs 1,667 over the next one year.

Kindly advice me on Ador Fontech and Kabra Extrusion brought at Rs 105 and Rs 115 respectively. Prashant Udawant

Ador Fontech (Rs 77.3): This stock fell from a high of Rs 151 in May to Rs 75 by the end of July.

The recovery since then has lacked conviction. The stock is expected to have difficulty rising above Rs 105 in the medium-term. A sideways move between Rs 75 and Rs 105 is most likely over the next one year.

Long-term support for this stock exists at Rs 67. Price might take support at these levels if it falls below Rs 75. Long-term investors can hold this stock till it stays above Rs 65.

Kabra Extrusions (Rs 108.3): Kabra Extrusions has been moving in a range between Rs 135 and Rs 65 since 2005. The stock is currently moving lower after having hit a high of Rs 130 in end September. Short-term support for the stock exists at Rs 98. If the stock bounces off this support, we can see one more upward move to Rs 135 in the next three months.

But a fall below Rs 98 will drag the price lower to Rs 90 and then Rs 65. Hold with a stop at Rs 88.

I am interested in Tulip IT. Kindly let me know whether I can buy at this rate. Manorama Phani

Tulip IT (Rs 524.7): The movement since the low made in September can be fit in to an upward moving channel. The upper boundary of this channel exists at Rs 544, where the price is halting currently. Inability to breach Rs 550 can see the price falling to Rs 492 or Rs 460. It would be advisable to wait for a firm close above Rs 560 before taking fresh position in this stock.

What is the outlook for Shree Digvijay Cements purchased at Rs 33? Lokesh Mahajan

Shree Digvijay Cement (Rs 31.3): The counter has strong long-term support at Rs 24.

The stock reversed from this level on December 12 and is currently moving up. Short-term resistance for this stock exists at Rs 34. If the price rises above this level, it can rally to Rs 41. Hold with a stop at Rs 30.

What is the outlook of Savita Chemicals bought at Rs 518 and KPIT Infosys at Rs 602. Please suggest whether to hold or exit at this level. Ashok Kumar B. Desai

Savita Chemicals (Rs 519.9): This stock is moving in a band between Rs 440 and Rs 540 since August.

As this move comes after a sharp upward move from the low of Rs 370, it should be construed as a positive base building before the next upward move. Though the stock will face resistance from the Rs 540 level, it has the potential to rally to Rs 572 or even Rs 628. Hold with a stop at Rs 458. Fresh positions can also be initiated on dips with the same stop.

KPIT Cummins Infosystems (Rs 694.3): This stock has gained 89 per cent since the low of Rs 346 touched in September. It is moving sideways in a band between Rs 550 and Rs 650 since November.

The outlook for this stock will stay positive as long as it stays above Rs 550. Hold your stock with a stop at Rs 545. A breakout on the higher side can take the price higher to Rs 739.

Please throw some light on Nicholas Piramal purchased at Rs 150. Rama Devi Mantha and Gayatri Maruvad

Nicholas Piramal (Rs 264.9): The stock has recovered smartly from the low of Rs 150 that it had hit in June. The stock is currently halting at Rs 265, which is an important resistance for the intermediate term. A reversal from these levels will make the stock dip lower to Rs 223 or even Rs 190. Book partial profits if the stock struggles to rise above Rs 265. As a rally above Rs 265 can take the price higher to Rs 293 and then to Rs 332, hold part of your holding with a stop at Rs 218.

Kindly advise me about Rajesh Exports. What is the support level and targets for this stock? I have bought at Rs 187. Debashis

Rajesh Exports (Rs 348.7): The counter has recouped all of the 65-per cent loss that it registered between May and July and is recording new all-time highs. The stock would face some resistance in the zone around Rs 365. Hold your shares with a stop at Rs 310. The stock has the potential to rally to Rs 469 in the long-term.

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Lokeshwarri S.K.

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