The Hindu Business Line : Do you tempt fate?

There is a dogma among a certain category of elderly Indians. Ask them how they are, and they will never reply that they are on top of the world, even if they are. It may be because they are superstitious. And if you ponder deeply, all of us behave in a similar manner. How?

In a recent experiment conducted by two professors from Cornell University, students were given a series of stories to read on the computer and then asked to indicate quickly whether a one-sentence ending made sense.

Some students read about a woman who heard about a rain forecast and carried an umbrella; others read about the same woman not carrying an umbrella. Then, both groups were asked if the following conclusion made sense: “As she is walking to the class that afternoon, it suddenly starts to rain”.

The students who read about the woman not carrying an umbrella were quicker to recognise that this sentence made sense. The researchers argue that the action to tempt fate leads to a negative outcome in the mind. And that, in turn, makes it seem that the outcome is more likely to happen.

In the above instance, the woman tempted fate by not carrying an umbrella. So, the students felt that the likelihood of rain was higher!

The elderly Indians, perhaps, employ the same logic.

Positive outcomes

In similar experiments, the researchers also found that sometimes the reluctance to tempt fate could have positive outcomes! How?

Students who do not read think that they are more likely to be called on in the class. So, the reluctance to tempt fate forces the students to read!

The point is that research shows that most subjects do not consider themselves superstitious! Yet, all of them seemed reluctant to tempt fate.

What has all this got to do with economics? This reluctance to tempt fate also drives our purchasing decisions. Buying an umbrella, for instance. Remember, it is more likely to rain if you do not have an umbrella than if you have one!

(The author is an investment strategist.)

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