The Hindu Business Line : Spreading panic

"I am prepared to wind up my farm give the six lakh birds to the Government, take compensation and wind up," says an upset Gulamabbas Karachiwala. The 70-year-old poultry farmer from Pune has been in the business for 28 years and employs about 200 people. But he has not seen anything like this.

"There is no guidance on what to do and no platform for farmers like us. I am now left with a stockpile of 10-12 lakh eggs and no place to store," he says, illustrating the predicament of big and small poultry farmers across the country.

Uncertainty tinged with fear hovers in the air, several days after that Saturday evening when the Maharashtra Government confirmed that birds had died of the deadly H5N1 virus in the State. The hi-decibel blame-game that followed, peppered with conflicting signals from authorities, only added to the confusion.

Is it the Ranikhet Disease (that affects the nervous system of birds) or the now infamous bird flu? Is a transmission from birds to humans waiting in the wings? Is it a poultry industry cover-up or a pharma industry conspiracy? Or was the government just plain hasty in going public on what was a potential health emergency? These are some of the questions being asked.

"It is too early to judge whether the panic was warranted. Is there genuine ground to take precaution? Yes. The problem is, our disease surveillance in humans and animals is poor. And from there stems the uncertainty and panic," says Dr Amit Sengupta with the All India People's Science Network.

"If the bird flu has been reported from a remote place like Nandurbar, then the disease should have gone through more accessible areas," he adds. The link to migratory birds has not been established, as Nandurbar is not in the migratory path. So, are we missing something, he asks, voicing a concern nagging scientists.

Poultry predicament

Saddled with "colossal losses" Karachiwala's son Fareed strongly feels the government could have handled the issue more systematically. “Bird flu is present in over 25 countries, and the Government has the scientific institutions at its disposal; it should have identified the problem and dealt with it,” says the 37-year-old second-generation poultry farmer.

"The government says it is safe to consume chicken and officials even appear on television eating chicken. But the defence services, railways, airlines and even the Parliament canteen have taken chicken off their menu," he adds. And consumer confidence in poultry products has hit rock bottom, despite the fact that no deaths have been recorded globally due to consumption of poultry products.

Karachiwala's Takave Farm on the Mumbai-Pune road supplies four truckloads to Mumbai every day. But over the last six days, he has been able to supply "with great difficulty" only four of the 24 trucks that should have gone, says Gulamabbas.

But there is a sense of deja vu. During the last public health emergency, the central government had jumped the gun. When the Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) fanned across nations, India too reported its first case in 2003.

And in two weeks, the incidence rose alarmingly to 20 cases. But soon the central government did a volte face, when WHO stepped in, saying no cases in India fitted the SARS definition. Subsequently, India was declared a SARS-free country.

The events that followed the confirmation of bird flu at a remote corner of Maharashtra smacks of a similar panic reaction, hurting more than just the livelihood of farmers at Nandurbar and the business of an estimated Rs 35,000-crore domestic poultry industry.

A representative with the United Nations had pointed out last year how bird-flu reports from a country can have companies re-assessing strategies in that market. Sealing borders and travel advisories follow, if a country is seen to be ill-equipped to handle a public health situation like bird flu.

Fear of the flu

Avian flu has infected about 200 people globally and killed 92 people since 2003, and has the potential to assume worrisome pandemic proportions. The virus has shown the tendency to cross-infect from birds to humans through close proximity with live-birds, feathers, droppings etc.

"But there will be an epidemic only if people-to-people transmission takes place and theoretically while that is possible, no single case has been reported," says Dr Sengupta. There is also the question on whether the virus will survive the Indian weather, he adds.

Despite this, consumers have stayed away from eggs and poultry fearing a risk of transmission from consumption. And if this fear continues, small poultry farmers will be put out of business and the big players will take a long time to recover lost ground, says A. Gopal Reddy, director of the Hyderabad-based Sneha Farms Pvt Ltd.

He disagrees that better health and hygiene standards were needed in the transportation and handling of livestock.

Sitting in a poultry market in South Mumbai, Abdul holds a similar view. He has been handling livestock with his bare hands for the last 20 years.

"We are organised and standards are maintained in the farms. The unorganised stalls on the roadside are much more of a health problem, but nobody stops them; they get away by paying money," he says.

Handling health emergencies

The threat of bird flu has persisted from 2003, and the Government had enough time to be prepared. And yet, the way the outbreak was handled left a lot to be desired, observes a health sector analyst.

It was the early warnings from drug-makers that alerted the Government on the potential public health threat. The Government seems to have navigated itself out of a sticky patent tangle on the bird-flu drug, Tamiflu. But medicines have side effects and the hospital machinery administering the drug needs to be careful.

People vaccinating their livestock need to ensure that they don’t end up creating a super-virus. Indiscriminate vaccination can create a resistance to the vaccine, as was the case with drug-resistant tuberculosis, for instance, point out experts.

That stockpiling of medicines and culling of birds are not adequate to tame a flu was emphasised by the United Nations late last year. It had underlined the need for better surveillance, strengthening of veterinary infrastructure and re-structuring the pattern of co-existence, where families live in close proximity with farmyard animals.

Health analysts agree. Besides controlling the flu, governments need to establish an integrated health surveillance network to detect the virus before it becomes a raging fever.

Picture by A.M. Faruqui