Coffee Board projects record crop next season

The Coffee Board has projected a record crop of 3.44 lakh tonnes (lt) for the new season beginning October, but growers are sceptical about the estimates.

According to the Coffee Board’s post-blossom estimate, Arabica output will be 1.05 lt and Robusta 2.34 lt. (The estimate of crop made after the coffee plant blossoms and spikes develop on the plant is the post-blossom estimate.)

This is against a revised estimate of 3.04 lt this season ending September (1.02 lt Arabica and 2.02 lt Robusta).

“I think this output could be difficult to achieve, especially with regard to Arabica. This is because even in best-maintained plantations, there is heavy infestation of the white stem borer,” said Anil K Bhandari, former president of the United Planters’ Association of Southern India, and an exporter.

“Such levels of production cannot come from the original area under coffee in the country. This year, most planters are complaining that their output will be down by at least 40 per cent as far as Arabica is concerned. In my own estates, the output will drop to 10 tonnes from 40 tonnes,” said Bose Mandanna, former Coffee Board Vice-Chairman and a planter in Kodagu, Karnataka.

Due to a prolonged dry season, the menace of the white stem borer, which has been wreaking havoc in coffee plantations over the past decade, is a serious threat this year.

“Maybe, the estimate put out by the Coffee Board was the situation prevalent during blossom. After that, there has been a tremendous loss in the estates due to the borer menace,” said Bhandari.

This year, coffee estates are reported to have received timely showers for blossoming of the coffee flower. Follow-up showers, required for growth of the plant, were also good before the borer menace spread panic.

According to the Board estimate, Karnataka will contribute 72 per cent of the coffee production next season, up from nearly 70 per cent this season. Output in Karnataka will be 2.48 lt (80,700 tonnes Arabica and 1.67 lt robusta) against 2.11 lt this season (78,440 tonnes Arabica and 1.32 lt Robusta).

Kodagu’s contribution will be 43 per cent with 20,150 tonnes of Arabica and 1.13 lt of Robusta (21,040 tonnes Arabica and 90,820 tonnes of Robusta). Last year, its contribution to the country’s coffee production was 36 per cent.

“It is almost like a drought situation in Kodagu. It is unlikely that the district will provide so much coffee this year,” Mandanna said.

“It is likely that the Coffee Board could revise the estimate downwards after taking into account the effect of monsoon and other things. It should carry out another estimate later and put it out during October-November. That could perhaps reflect a correct picture,” Bhandari said.

According to plantation industry sources, for the last few years, the Coffee Board has been putting out a higher projection of the crop in its post-blossom estimate.

“This has been happening for sometime now. They come out with a higher figure and then revise it. Who gains from such estimates,?” a source wondered.

Last year, the Coffee Board initially estimated the crop at a record 3.47 lakh tonnes before pegging it finally at 3.04 lakh tonnes.

This season’s production estimate was lowered after heavy rains in the growing areas led to wet feet in coffee plants resulting in the roots growth freezing. This led to coffee berries falling off the plant, leading to loss.

“The Board has to revise its methodology in estimating the crop. Then, perhaps it could be nearer to reality,” the source said.

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