Gold is likely to see-saw in the domestic spot and futures market at least until Wednesday.

US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke will speak at the National Bureau of Economic Research and could probably spell if the US will continue its stimulus programme. It will also see the minutes of the US Fed June meeting published.

Speculation is that the $86 million the US spends every month to keep the economy ticking higher under the stimulus programme could be cut.

Signals for the bulls in the precious metals sector are not encouraging, going by the US jobs data that showed higher-than-expected employment in June.

Rupee movement

But in the Indian context, the currency movement, too, will have a say since any rise in the dollar against the rupee could make import of commodities such as gold, crude oil and vegetable oil costlier. Therefore, even if the dollar’s gain hammers gold in the global market, it could cushion the fall here.

In early Asian trade, the dollar edged higher on Monday.

In Singapore, spot gold was quoted lower at $1,218.81 an ounce, while gold futures maturing in August were up at $1,217.40.

Spot, futures gold

In the domestic market during the week-end, gold for jewellery (99.5 per cent purity) dropped to Rs 26,150 for 10 gm, while pure gold (99.9 per cent purity) slid to Rs 26,285.

On MCX, the precious metal could swing between Rs 25,700 and Rs 25,950.

Crude oil

Crude oil, on the other hand, continued to be under bulls’ control on signs of the US economy growing and fears that the unrest in Egypt could disrupt supply in West Asia.

Brent crude for delivery in August was up at $107.93, while West Texas Intermediate crude on NYMEX quoted at $103.43 a barrel.

Soyabaean, crude palm oil

The oils and oilseed counter could see the bear active with higher soyabean stockpiles in Brazil and hopes of a higher US crop this year. With palm oil plantations set to enter peak production period, prices could come under pressure.

Further resistance is likely from higher kharif plantings in India, which is seeing monsoon showering bounty this year.

Chicago Board of Trade soyabean for delivery in November ruled at $12.32 a bushel, while crude palm oil for delivery in September fell to 2,377 ringgit ($741) a tonne on Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange at the open.

The grains complex is also likely to come under pressure on forecasts of favourable weather for the US crop. Besides, projections of record global wheat and corn (industrial maize) crop will also force the complex head south.

Wheat, corn prices

CBOT wheat September contracts slid to $6.59 a bushel, while corn for delivery in December slumped to $4.90 a bushel.

Natural rubber is likely to gain as the Japanese yen dropped against the dollar, while tapping in India is likely to be affected by rain in growing areas.

On the Tokyo Commodity Exchange, rubber December contracts were up at 247.8 yen or Rs 147.50 a kg.

(This article was published on July 8, 2013)
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