Gold prices are likely to come under pressure on spot and futures market on Friday as the global markets await US jobs data later in the night. In between, movements in the currency market could play a minor role in the price swings.

Indications are that the US data may show that more jobs were added, signalling that the economy is improving. That could eventually lead to the US Fed Reserve scale back monetary stimulus.

In early Asian trade, gold traded gingerly at $1,244.33 an ounce, while gold futures maturing in August ruled at $1,242.90.

In the domestic market on Thursday, gold for jewellery (99.5% purity) dropped to Rs 26,270 for 10 gm and pure gold (99.9% purity) to Rs 26,410.

The dollar gained on Friday and it could hold key for the domestic market since its rise against the rupee makes imports of commodities such as gold, crude oil and vegetable oils costlier. On Thursday, the rupee was up modestly, though.

On MCX, gold August contracts could trade between Rs 26,200 and Rs 26,350.

Crude Oil

Crude oil could gain after prices in the global market rose to a 14-month high on hopes of rise in demand, particularly in the US. Any rise in employment in the US will further fuel the rise.

Brent crude oil for delivery in August was up at $105.40 a barrel, while West Texas Intermediate rose to $100.98.

Oils and Oilseeds

The oils and oilseed complex could head north as palm oil stocks are seen dropping for the sixth consecutive month, while lower soyabean stockpiles could also fire up the complex. However, projection of a higher production in the coming season will cap the gains.

Chicago Board of Trade soyabean futures maturing in November were up at $12.50 a bushel. On Bursa Malaysia Derivatives Exchange, crude palm oil September contracts slipped to 2,358 ringgit ($741) a tonne.

Grains complex

Forecasts by the Agricultural Market Intelligence System, set up by a group of 20 countries, of a higher grain production could drag wheat and corn (industrial maize) south. The group said that global wheat output will be record high and even more that projections it made last month. Global wheat production is seen up at 704 million tonnes, resulting in higher carryover stocks.

Corn production is expected to surge to 972 million tonnes against 874 million tonnes a year ago.

CBOT corn for delivery in December trade at $5.02 a bushel, while wheat for delivery in September ruled at $6.65 a bushel.

Rubber

Natural rubber is likely to gain as the Japanese yen dropped against the dollar, leading to rise in futures on the Tokyo Commodity Exchange.

In early trade, rubber for delivery in December rose to 248.4 yen or Rs 149 a kg.

(This article was published on July 5, 2013)
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