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The outlook for turmeric futures traded on the National Commodity and Derivatives Exchange (NCDEX) is bullish. The contract has surged over 15 per cent in the last one month. Strong spot demand and increasing demand from North India has helped the price rise, which has also been supported by quality arrivals in the market. Technically, on the charts, the contract has breaching an important resistance level of ₹8,500 this week suggesting that further rally is possible. This offers a good opportunity for traders to go long in the contract.
Short-term view: The corrective fall from the April 15 high of ₹8,600 halted at the 21-day moving average support. Subsequently, the contract reversed higher from the low of ₹7,922 suggesting that the short-term uptrend that begun in late March is intact. The contract has decisively breached above a key resistance at ₹8,500 on Monday. This could now act as a good resistance-turned-support level. The next key support is at 8,190 – the 50-day moving average. A rise to ₹9,000 and ₹9,200 looks likely in the coming weeks.
Short-term traders can go long. Stop-loss can be kept at ₹8,350 for the target of ₹9,100. Intermediate declines to ₹8,500 if seen can be used to accumulate long positions.
Medium-term view: The medium-term outlook is also turning bullish. The contract has been trading inside a bear channel since this January. The rally so far has breached the channel resistance at ₹8,575. The price action on the daily chart is showing an initial signal of the channel break out. A decisive close above ₹8,575 this week would confirm the break out. In such a scenario, the contract could target ₹10,000 levels in the medium term.
Traders with a medium-term perspective can hold the long position with a wide stop-loss at ₹8,100 for the target of ₹9,500. The 21-day moving at ₹8,185 is a key medium-term support for the contract. The outlook will turn negative only if the contract records a decisive weekly close below this level.
Note: The recommendations are based on technical analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading.
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