Comments
The soyabean futures contract traded on the NCDEX has been on a downtrend since April this year, when it recorded a high of ₹4,855 a quintal. The contract is now trading at ₹3,059, down 37 per cent since then.
The main reason for this fall has been an expected record soyabean production in the US this year. According the latest data release from the US Department of Agriculture, the production in the US this year, is estimated at a record 3.91 billion bushels, up 19 per cent from the previous year.
The downtrend in the NCDEX-soyabean futures contract is expected to extend further in the coming weeks. This offers a good opportunity, for traders with short- and medium-term perspective, to accumulate short positions.
Short-term view: The short-term trend is down for the NCDEX-soyabean futures contract. The 21-day moving average at ₹3,236 and the 200-week moving average at ₹3,255 are key short-term resistances for the contract.
The contract has immediate support at ₹3,000. A break below this level can drag the contract lower to ₹2,750. Traders with a short-term perspective can initiate fresh short position, with a stop-loss at ₹3,285 for the target of ₹2,800.
The short-term outlook will turn bullish only if the contract records a strong close above ₹3,250. The next target will be ₹3,400.
Medium-term view: The medium-term outlook for the NCDEX-soyabean futures contract is bearish. Key medium-term resistance is at ₹3,450. The current downtrend, which has been in place since April, shows no sign of an immediate reversal. As such, the contract can extend its fall to ₹2,600 in the coming weeks.
Traders with a medium-term perspective can go short with a stop-loss at ₹3,465 for the target of ₹2,630. Intermediate rallies to ₹3,400, can be used as opportunity to accumulate more short positions.
The current downtrend will reverse only on a strong close above ₹3,450. Such a breakout can take the contract higher to ₹3,800 and ₹4,000.
Note: The recommendations are based on technical analysis. There is a risk of loss in trading.
Comments
COMMENT NOW
Comments
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.