Dollar eases on disappointing US data; investors await central bankers’ speech

The dollar edged lower versus a basket of major currencies on Friday in the wake of unimpressive US economic data, with investors awaiting speeches by major central bankers.

The dollar index slipped 0.2 per cent to 95.117, having backed off from Wednesday’s peak of 95.837, its highest level since May 5.

It is still up 2 per cent on the week, putting it on track for its first weekly gain in six weeks.

Analysts said the index’s inability to break above its 100-day moving average, currently around 95.620, was keeping a lid on the dollar.

BoJ monetary stimulus

Against the yen, the dollar sagged slightly after the Bank of Japan maintained its massive monetary stimulus, as expected, and slightly revised up its assessment of the economy, signalling that it sees no need to expand stimulus again on the near-term horizon.

The reaction was subdued, however, with the dollar last down 0.2 per cent on the day at 120.82 yen, compared with around 120.90/95 just ahead of the BoJ announcement.

For the week, the dollar is up more than 1 per cent against the yen, having touched a two-month high of 121.49 yen on Wednesday.

The dollar’s rise this week was probably helped by technical factors and the fact that the greenback had been well supported in recent weeks at the 118-yen levels, said a trader for a Japanese bank in Tokyo.

“I think there is a sense that it might be better to buy (the dollar) since the downside was solidly supported and it looks as it is starting to break higher on charts,’’ he said.

“But it’s not as if an immediate rise to 125 yen seems likely,’’ he said, adding that market participants were looking for a clearer catalyst.

The next focus for the yen is BoJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda’s post-meeting news conference.

Draghi’s speech

Later on, investors will turn their attention to a speech by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who along with other central bankers will be addressing an ECB Forum on ‘Inflation and Unemployment in Europe’.

US economic outlook

Focus will also fall on Federal Reserve Chair Janet Yellen who is due to speak on the US economic outlook before the Greater Providence Chamber of Commerce Economic Outlook Luncheon at 1700 GMT.

Traders said those event risks, coupled with holidays on Monday, called for caution.

UK and US markets are shut on Monday for the Spring Bank Holiday and Memorial Day, respectively. European centres such as Germany will be observing the Whit Monday holiday.

Going into the weekend, the dollar was pegged back after disappointing US data on Thursday.

Home resales fell in April and the strong dollar pressured manufacturing activity in May, although the labour market continued to tighten and the US economy apparently remained on a modest growth track.

Dollar vs other currencies

The euro rose 0.3 per cent to $1.1150, staying above Wednesday’s three-week low of $1.1062.

Sterling inched up 0.1 per cent to $1.5677. The pound had gained 0.8 per cent on Thursday after data showed British retail sales rose more strongly than expected in April.

Against the yen, sterling eased 0.1 per cent to 189.34 yen, having touched a high of 190.03 yen on Thursday, the pound’s strongest level against the yen since September 2008.

“The (recent) stagnation of dollar/yen has hidden an underlying weak yen trend,’’ said Callum Henderson, global head of FX research for Standard Chartered Bank in Singapore, noting that the yen had come under renewed pressure in the past few weeks.

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