Equirus

 

CMP: ₹331.65

Target: ₹410

ICICI Bank posted a below-expected 3QFY18 PAT of ₹1,650 crore (EE ₹1,870 crore) dragged by 13 bps q-o-q NIM compression, subdued non-treasury fee income growth of 2 per cent y-o-y and elevated provisions of ₹3,570 crore. Domestic loan growth was healthy at 16 per cent y-o-y with the bank focussing on granular retail and better-rated corporate lending; about 88 per cent of incremental corporate disbursements in 9MFY18 were to ‘A- and above’ rated corporates. With a moderation in incremental slippages, about ₹17,000 crore of NCLT-referred accounts likely reaching some resolution in FY19E, and good quality incremental disbursements, we expect continued moderation in incremental credit cost (ex. one-time impact of IND-AS) during FY19E/FY20E; this in turn would drive RoE improvement (FY20E 12 per cent vs FY18E 7.8 per cent).

Key risks: A protracted slowdown, non-resolution of stressed assets and adverse regulatory guidelines are key risks to our estimates. We have not incorporated any impact of IND-AS and one-time provisioning remains a key risk to our FY19E estimates.

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