The well-marked low-pressure area in the Bay of Bengal had moved a little south-west and was located last night over West-Central and adjoining South-West Bay of Bengal (closer to the East Coast).

The India Met Department (IMD) has extended by another 24 hours the window for its intensification as a depression for a third day running.

WANING CONFIDENCE?

Normally, pushing the deadline in this manner represents waning confidence in the weather system with respect to intensification to forecast strength, but the last word may not have been said on it yet.

Significantly, the IMD had not changed the expected timeline for its landfall over the North Andhra Pradesh and adjoining South Odisha coast by tomorrow morning.

This would leave the well-marked 'low' with the final 24 hours for its intensification within which it should also be able to travel some distance (approximately 640 km) in order to make landfall.

It is in this context that global model forecasts still suggest an outside chance for intensification, though landfall may get delayed by a day.

It is yet to be seen what the IMD would have to say latest in its outlook statement expected later this morning - especially on whether it sticks to the timeline for landfall of the system.

The US Joint Typhoon Warning Centre assesses at 'medium' the chance for its intensification during the next 24 hours and seems to indicate a delayed landfall.

'GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION'

In its latest bulletin issued at midnight last night, a good four hours later than the IMD, it said the intensification will happen 'gradually over the next two days.'

This pushes the landfall beyond tomorrow after the system tracks north-westward to northward, the US Naval agency said, pointing to a location over the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast.

It located the system lurking a good 640 km to the south-east of Visakhapatnam as a poorly organised storm last night but capable of traction within the next two days of movement of the sea waters.

Sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) are at 28 deg Celsius or beyond, which is just enough to sustain a storm. They are, however, warmer towards the North Andhra Pradesh-South Odisha coasts.

This is where the system is travelling to, likely intensifying in the process, before landfall can happen, the US agency said. Maximum surface winds logged at 47 km/hr to 55 km/hr last night.

This more or less corresponds to depression strength. The IMD had issued a warning to fishermen venturing out into the seas around Andaman & Nicobar Islands yesterday itself.

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