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Prospects of a tropical cyclone brewing in the Bay of Bengal have elicited varied response from international weather models as to its likely track for onward movement.
According to India Meteorological Department (IMD), the causative depression over East-central Bay was located 370 km north-northwest of Port Blair and 490 km southwest of Yangon (Myanmar) last night.
SKIRTING MYANMAR
This makes for a track progressively away from the Andaman and Nicobar Islands and closing in on towards the Myanmar coast, which is playing true to forecasts already made available.
The IMD has stuck to its outlook that the depression would intensify into a deep depression and further into a cyclonic storm and reach close to Myanmar coast by this evening.
From here, it will re-curve to the north-northwest (towards Bangladesh) avoiding a direct hit of the Myanmar coast, and head back north-northwest into North-west Bay of Bengal.
The IMD bulletin does not say anything further about the subsequent movement but its wind field projections suggest that the cyclone would gather strength and head towards the Odisha-Andhra Pradesh coast by October 27/28.
SUCCESSOR SYSTEM?
They further talk about the possibility of another storm being triggered in the South-east Bay and heading once again for the Andhra Pradesh coast in early November. But this is something that needs careful watching and verification.
Meanwhile, international models accessed by BusinessLine for getting a consensus view on the movement and track of the current depression in the Bay had to say the following:
US National Centres for Environmental Prediction: Cyclone gathering strength in the East-central Bay and making a landfall over North Andhra Pradesh-South Odisha coast. Timeline - October 27/28.
European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts: Cyclone of fluctuating potential weakening initially off Odisha coast, strengthening later but moving first towards North and subsequently towards the South along the coast while weakening in the process. Timeline - October 27 to November 1.
GLOBAL MODEL OUTLOOK
US Climate Prediction Centre storm tracker: A likely cyclonic storm dying out off the Myanmar coast and making no further progress back to North-west Bay as cited by other models.
Canadian Meteorological Centre: Cyclonic storm headed for Andhra Pradesh coast, weakening ahead of landfall. Time line - October 22 to 29.
Global Forecast System (NCEP): Cyclone of medium strength heading towards North Odisha coast but changing direction to north-northwest towards Gangetic West Bengal. Timeline - October 22 to 30.
Japanese Meteorological Agency: Cyclone in East Bay heading straight west into North-west Bay and strengthening, looking at the Andhra Pradesh coast. Timeline - October 18 to 26.
US Navy Global Environmental Model: Strong cyclone heading straight across North-west Bay towards Andhra Pradesh coast. Timeline - October 19 to 30.
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