Very severe cyclone Nilofar is now at its peak strength featuring wind speeds of up to 210 km/hr gusting to 220 km/hr, according to the India Met Department.

This beats predecessor Hudhud that ravaged the Visakhapatnam coast on October 12. Hudhud had a peak strength of 175 km/hr, gusting reportedly at a maximum of 200 m/hr.

WEAKENING SIGNALS

The big relief in the instant case is that Nilofar is still three days away from landfall over Gujarat, by which time it would substantially weaken in intensity.

Landfall is expected to take place on Saturday morning when Nilofar would have wound down to a minimal cyclone (80 to 90 km/hr with gusts of 100 km/hr).

This morning, the Met located the very severe cyclonic storm 900 km southwest of Naliya (Gujarat) and 910 km southwest of Karachi (Pakistan).

Importantly, Nilofar has gained peak strength while only 420 km southeast of Masirah Island of Oman, but it would be spared a direct hit.

OMAN SPARED

This is because during the course of the day, the storm would start changing course away from Masirah, first to the north-northeast and then northeast.

The storm would re-orient itself towards making landfall over the Gujarat coast, an operation executed under the influence of a passing western disturbance.

Originating farther north-northwest in the Mediterranean, these disturbances travel periodically across the Arabian Gulf, Afghanistan and Pakistan into northwest India.

Nilofar happened to cross the path of one such, but despite its strength, will be pummelled into submission by the westerly system and dragged along.

Thus, Nilofar would be taken to Gujarat, and a remnant would roll into east Rajasthan and southwest Uttar Pradesh, raining all the way across.

WESTERN DISTURBANCE

The front-end of the massive phalange of the western disturbance has trooped into Jammu and Kashmir and induced the formation of a circulation over west Rajasthan.

It is usual for large and deep western disturbances to create offspring circulations in the plains of northwest India, signalling its reach and influence south of its track.

Nilofar is being appropriated by a ‘limb’ of the westerly system extending to the south over Northeast Arabian Sea, partly incited by its own strength and intensity.

From Friday night, isolated heavy to very heavy rainfall would commence along coastal districts of Saurashtra and Kutch.

Squally winds speeds reaching 45 to 55 km/hr and gusting to 65 km/hr would prevail along and off Gujarat. They would increase in intensity to 80-90 km/hr, gusting to 100 km/hr, at the time of landfall.

comment COMMENT NOW