Heat wave scorches Northwest as rain drenches central, south India

A heat wave in mid-July, and in the midst of monsoon?

Yes, this is what is exactly happening in most parts of northwest India even as the monsoon has entered an active phase in the Bay of Bengal, central India and the peninsula.

Indifferent Monsoon

While this scenario unravels the complexities of achieving equitable distribution of rain across time and space, it also points to the indifferent performance of the monsoon thus far.

For instance, just as the monsoon enters an active phase in the central and southern parts of the country, a heat wave has engulfed almost entire north and northwest.

An India Met Department update said that severe heat wave conditions prevailed over parts of Delhi, south Uttar Pradesh, east Rajasthan, and north Madhya Pradesh.

Less-than-severe heat wave ruled the immediate neighbourhood including Haryana, Punjab, west Uttar Pradesh, south Madhya Pradesh, and Gujarat.

Reversal of scenario

Similar conditions are forecast to continue over almost all these regions for three more days, the forecast outlook said.

But these would be exactly reversed during the next week as the rains over central India progress towards the northwest, leaving central and peninsular India in the lurch.

No small part of the blame for this rigmarole should go to a ‘numbered tropical depression’ 09W in the northwest Pacific, which had hosted super cyclone Neoguri just last week.

According to model forecasts, 09W would go on to become a tropical storm and later a typhoon as it steams into the northern tip of the Philippines by late next week.

As was the case with Neoguri, this typhoon (Rammasun, as per the naming protocol) would have appropriated oodles of moisture that would otherwise go to feed the Indian monsoon.

Moisture build

Super typhoon Neoguri had stalled the progress of the Indian monsoon which has failed to progress even after the formation of the fresh ‘low’ in the Bay of Bengal.

The latest typhoon would do what is feared it could – undermine the monsoon by nibbling away at the core moisture build and piping in huge chunks across south Bay of Bengal.

The only consolation is that, unlike Neoguri, it is forecast to take a track conventionally thought would aid the monsoon, though with retrospective effect.

Neoguri spun and farther away from the India monsoon system; the would-be typhoon is inching its way towards it, with the possibility of sending a ‘pulse’ into the Bay of Bengal.

This ‘pulse’ could regenerate in the Bay to grow into a low-pressure area and help out with the progress of the monsoon. But this is something that needs to be watched out.

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