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The South-West monsoon set in over Kerala on Wednesday, a week late but well within the timeframe of the India Meteorology Department’s (IMD) June 7 plus or minus four days prediction.
The onset of south west monsoon, the lifeline of country’s farm sector, has brought a sense of relief the beleaguered farming community that has been waiting to take up planting of key kharif crops such as paddy, pulses, oilseeds and cotton among others.
The Met has forecast normal to above-normal rain during this year’s monsoon after two successive years of large two-digit deficits that triggered drought in about 10 states across the country.
The three main conditions that determine the onset were fulfilled for the first time on Wednesday.
The department has been monitoring conditions since May 10, a Met bulletin said.
Conditions met The first condition pertained to the rainfall pattern over 14 stations over the past two days in which more than 60 per cent reported widespread rainfall.
The second was the depth (up to 4.5 km above the surface) and speed (up to 40 km/hr) of westerly to south-westerly winds over the South Arabian Sea.
A third one had to do with the density of the cloud in an area represented by a ‘box’ just off the coast of Kerala.
In the initial burst, the monsoon covered the entire South Arabian Sea, Maldives-Comorin, most parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu and some parts of South Interior Karnataka.
Northern limit Conditions are favourable for advance of the monsoon into Coastal Karnataka, the remaining parts of Kerala and Tamil Nadu, some more parts of South Interior Karnataka, and some parts of South Andhra Pradesh.
Quick progress foreseen Expectations are that the monsoon may make a quick progress covering most parts of the country ahead of schedule.
The US Climate Prediction Centre sees the monsoon entering Delhi ahead of June 29, the normal date. It may then target Punjab and Haryana one after the other but stop short of making a tryst with Rajasthan.
The US National Centre for Environmental Prediction says the first few showers may wet North Rajasthan by June 25.
Meanwhile, the Met said that the onset phase is expected to generate vigorous monsoon conditions over the West Coast and parts of peninsular India during the first week.
Heavy to very heavy rain with the possibility of isolated extremely heavy rainfall has been forecast for Coastal Karnataka on Thursday.
A similar forecast is valid for isolated places over Kerala, Konkan, Goa, South Interior Karnataka, Lakshadweep, North Coastal Andhra Pradesh, Assam and Meghalaya.
The rest of the North-Eastern States, South Madhya Maharashtra, and Uttarakhand are other areas likely to receive heavy to very heavy showers during the period up to June 12.
An extended outlook for three days, up to June 15, said that rain or thunderstorms would continue to lash most places on the West Coast, and even along the foothills of the Himalayas.
“The arrival of rain definitely lifts the sentiment across sectors. If the monsoon progresses well, it will have a softening impact on the prices of commodities,” said BV Mehta, Executive Director, Solvent Extractors Association of India.
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