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The northern limit of the monsoon has not advanced from yesterday’s position but the Met says conditions are ripe for its entry into parts of Northwest India.
Over the next two days, rain should cover more parts of Madhya Pradesh, remaining parts of Uttar Pradesh, Haryana, Chandigarh, Delhi, Punjab and some parts of north Rajasthan.
Shifts position
The low-pressure area that drives the fresh wave of rains has shifted position from the sea (Northwest Bay of Bengal) to land over Gangetic West Bengal and adjoining Bangladesh.
A counterpart ensemble of weather features waited over Northwest India – a prominent member being the trough extending from Punjab to East-central Bay of Bengal.
The trough cut through Haryana, Uttar Pradesh and Jharkhand before ending in the ‘low.’ A second member is a western disturbance that was parked over Jammu and Kashmir as a cyclonic circulation.
May weaken
The third is an upper air cyclonic circulation over Punjab. The ‘low’ is steering monsoon easterlies from the Bay into the trough which, in turn, interacts with the ensemble to bring showers to the Northwest.
The ‘low’ is forecast to be active over the next couple of days, although it might weaken by a notch in the process.
US model forecasts predict that the rains might cover entire Madhya Pradesh and also filter into South and Southwest Gujarat during the period.
The forecast for three days starting from today mainly spoke about heavy to very rain for East and Northeast India.
Rain outlook
July 2 (today): Heavy rainfall at isolated places over Jammu and Kashmir, Himachal Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, Assam, Meghalaya, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
July 3: Heavy to very heavy rainfall at a few places over Jharkhand and at isolated places over sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim.
Heavy rainfall at isolated places over Gangetic West Bengal, Bihar, Odisha, Assam, Meghalaya, Coastal Karnataka and Kerala.
July 4: Heavy to very heavy rainfall at isolated places over Sub-Himalayan West Bengal, Sikkim and Jharkhand.
Heavy rainfall would occur over Odisha, Assam, Meghalaya and Andaman and Nicobar Islands
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