The disruptive influence of north-west Pacific typhoon Neoguri on India’s monsoon is on the wane as the monstrous storm weakened and readied for a landfall over mainland Japan.

Formation of a low-pressure area over north-west Bay of Bengal around Friday would mean that the monsoon would be left to its own to be able to resume its journey into the central parts of the country.

Preparatory whirl A preparatory upper air cyclonic circulation has set up a perch over west-central Bay of Bengal off the Andhra Pradesh coast, an update from India Met Department said.

It would descend to lower levels to set up the ‘low’ that, according to initial indications, would cross the Andhra Pradesh-Odisha coast and move into central India.

The Met has said that conditions are becoming favourable for advance of monsoon into those parts in Vidarbha, Marathwada and Madhya Maharashtra where the rains have not reached as yet.

Some parts of adjoining west Madhya Pradesh and Gujarat may also receive showers as the rain-head churns its way across over the next three to four days, the Met said.

Drier over Gujarat The Climate Prediction Centre of the US also agrees with this outlook but indicates that Gujarat, east Rajasthan, rest of north-west India, east India and south Kerala would witness deficient rainfall until Monday.

Areas which are shown as receiving excess precipitation are east Madhya Pradesh; Chhattisgarh; north coastal Andhra Pradesh; and the Konkan-to-north Kerala stretch.

The US agency assesses that the week that follows (July 15-21) would bring back the rains to Delhi, Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Jharkhand, West Bengal and the North-East.

The West Coast too would witness excess rainfall; rain deficit for the week would be spread over Gujarat, entire central India (Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh) and Tamil Nadu.

Next typhoon According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, the reasonably strong spell of the monsoon might just continue until July 18 when it is likely to run into another building typhoon in the Pacific.

Forecasts based on initial conditions as on Wednesday (July 9) said that the monsoon could undergo another round of weakening in view of the pull power of the typhoon.

A leading Asian storm tracker indicated that unlike Neoguri, the brewing system would head westward aiming the Taiwan/south China coast.

Neoguri had taken a north-northeast track that is totally prejudiced to monsoon prospects in India; but a westward course, though initially disruptive, could prove beneficial later subject to conditions.

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