The Indian Meteorological Department has forecast that the South-West Monsoon will hit the Kerala coast on time, by June 5. The Monsoon usually sets in over Kerala around June 1.

The IMD sees the Monsoon getting active and hitting the Andaman Seas over the next three days. Business Line had reported earlier this week that the Monsoon would set in over the Andaman by Saturday.

The advance of South-West the monsoon over the Andaman Sea normally takes place around May 20, with a standard deviation of one week.

“Low level cross equatorial monsoon flow has started appearing over South of Andaman Sea and adjoining South Bay of Bengal. During the last few days, considerable increase in the rainfall activity over the Bay of Bengal has also been observed,” the Met Department said in a release.

The department, which uses six predictors — including minimum temperature over North-West India and pre-monsoon rainfall peak over South peninsula — has said the error margin for the prediction is four days.

The onset of the South-West monsoon over Kerala signals the beginning of the rainy season in the country.

In April, the IMD had warned of lower-than-normal monsoon this year due to the probability of the emergence of the El Nino phenomenon, which can trigger drought in India.

According to the IMD statement, in April, there was a 60 per cent chance of an El Nino phenomenon.

The release was silent on the El Nino occurrence. The South-West Monsoon, which accounts for two-third of the rainfall in the country, holds the key to a good kharif crop, particularly rice and oilseeds.

Of the total foodgrain production in the country, the kharif crops make up about 60 per cent.

Last year, the Monsoon arrived a couple of days earlier than what the Met office had predicted.

Less-than-normal monsoon can spell trouble for the agricultural sector, especially in India where almost 60 per cent of the crop area is rain-fed.

This could further impact economic growth and lead to inflation.

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