Yesterday's depression over East-central and adjoining West-Central Arabian Sea spun rapidly overnight to grow into a deep depression and subsequently, tropical cyclone Chapala.
The cyclone is located 1,080 km southwest of Mumbai and 1,150 east-southeast of Oman this morning. 'Chapala' is sufficiently away to be of any consequence to the Indian coast.
YEMEN/OMAN-BOUND
But India Met Department said that the cyclone will intensify at least three rounds to become an 'extremely severe cyclone' (just below super cyclone status) over the next three-four days.
But it will weaken a round as a 'very severe cyclone' before approaching the Yemen and adjoining Oman coast by November 2 (Monday), the Met said in its outlook.
Wind field projections suggest it may take a detour off Yemen-Oman in a north-east direction looking towards Karachi in Pakistan. But this needs to be confirmed.
N-E MONSOON
Cyclone Chapala has been instrumental in dragging in the North-East monsoon over India's South Peninsula yesterday.
But the 'monsoon in reverse' may also suffer some collateral damage given that a counterpart low-pressure area in Bay of Bengal, around which it was expected to rally in Chapala's wake, is weakening.
It would not be allowed to move north into the Tamil Nadu coast, as was expected. Only moisture-laden southerly winds from the system will blow in, dumping some rain along the coast, latest forecasts say.
The Met said that heavy rain will occur at isolated places in Tamil Nadu, Kerala, South Interior Karnataka and Rayalaseema over a period of the next week (until November 5).
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