Heavy polling points to polarisation

A Muslim construction worker’s divorce of his wife on Thursday was the toast of the Assamese media. In full view of his village of Donam Addahati in Sonitpur district, Ainuddin announced his talaq to Dilwara Begum, his wife of ten years, as she had defied the diktat of the village’s elders to vote for the Congress. Instead, she had voted for the BJP’s Pramod Borathakur during the elections of April 4.

The story is being discussed as evidence of polarisation, with a majority of the 34 per cent Muslims in Assam voting Congress, and a large section of the State’s Hindus gravitating towards the BJP. What most party workers and leaders told BusinessLine was that smaller parties such as Badruddin Ajmal’s All India United Democratic Front (AIUDF) and the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP) will be swept aside in this tide, decisively favouring the BJP and the Congress.

There has been high percentage of polling from all communities. The overall polling percentage — at 84.72 per cent — is the highest-ever in the State’s history. The last time Assam recorded such high polling (in 1985, with 79.21 per cent) Prafulla Kumar Mahanta swept to power and the Congress was routed.

A vote for change? In this context, when Upper Assam districts of Lakhimpur, Dibrugarh, Tinsukhia, Jorhat, Golaghat and others reported 82.2 per cent polling, the BJP was buoyant. The party interpreted the high percentage of polling in Upper Assam districts as a vote for change.

“This has been a vote for change. We are certain to emerge as the single-largest party and form the government,” Rajkumar Sarma, the treasurer of the BJP’s State unit in Assam told BusinessLine over phone.

Muslim voting However, Sarma’s enthusiasm waned somewhat while discussing the phenomenal turnout, of about 87 per cent, in the second phase that included most of the Muslim majority districts – Dhubri, Barpeta, Hailakandi, Goalpara, Karimgunj and Nagaon. “There has been heavy polling in Muslim areas. Let us see whether AIUDF manages to hold its ground,” Sarma said.

In the Lower Assam districts, as many as 14 Assembly constituencies reported over 90 per cent polling. Mankachar (93.37%), Salmara South (93.19%), Golakgunj (91.19%), Bilasipara West (93.07%), Bilasipara East (90.41%) in the Muslim majority district of Dhubri, Dhing (91.15%), Rupohihat (90.32%), also in the Muslim majority district of Nagaon, Abhayapuri North (90.47%) and Abhayapuri South (SC) (90.90%) in Bongaigaon district, Goalpara East (90.52%), Goalpara West (91.60%), Jaleswar (93.53%) in Goalpara district are all indicative of very high percentage of polling among Muslims.

Congress State President Anjan Dutta said high polling percentage would mean that every community had come out to vote. And this time, he said, none of the smaller parties will benefit.

“They (BJP) have tied up with the AGP and BPF, both of whom have fielded former militants. People of Assam are sick of violence and they will not vote for them. If the BJP was so confident, why did they make this kind of alliances, and why did the entire Cabinet descend on Assam like it was the general elections? The fact is that the Congress will win comfortably. And we will get every community’s vote,” Dutta told BusinessLine .

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