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The Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) has located India's South-West monsoon currently to the south-east of Sri Lanka.
This is near to its average location for this time of the year, the Bureau said. Satellite pictures show noticeable increase in convection (cloud-building) in the entire northern hemisphere.
MJO WAVE ON MOVE
The Bureau also added that a wet phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) wave is likely to strengthen and move over the Eastern Indian Ocean.
The MJO wave is an east-ward moving system of clouds, precipitation, and pressure differential that helps monsoon onsets, creation of low-pressure areas/depression under its footprint.
Strengthening of the wave would likely enhance the development of the monsoonal conditions across the Indian subcontinent, the Australian agency said.
India Met Department has already under watch the behaviour of an upper air cyclonic circulation lying over Equatorial Indian Ocean and adjoining South-East Bay of Bengal.
'WEAK' EL NINO
According to the Bureau, emerging model consensus suggests that any El Nino event in the Equatorial Pacific during the latter half of the year would be a 'weak' one.
The Equatorial Pacific continues to be warm but under El Nino threshold levels; the Bureau has maintained its 'El Nino' watch in the region.
The El Nino, or warming episode in this part of the Pacific, has often adversely impacted a concurrent Indian monsoon, though with no direct cause-effect link.
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