In the lead-up to the pitru paksha period, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is expected to effect a Cabinet reshuffle, and the ruling NDA likely to add two new constituents – the AIADMK and the Janata Dal (United).

On Monday, reacting quickly to the news of the merger of the two factions of Tamil Nadu’s ruling AIADMK, the PM lauded the representatives of the camp — Chief Minister Edappadi K Palaniswami and former CM O Panneerselvam. “I congratulate Thiru O Panneerselvam and others who took oath today. I hope Tamil Nadu scales newer heights of progress in the years to come…Centre assures all possible support to CM Thiru Edappadi K Palaniswami and Dy CM Thiru O Panneerselvam for the growth of TN,” Modi tweeted.

BJP behind the scenes The BJP was clearly an active operator in the Monday merger of the two AIADMK factions as this was a precondition set by the PM and BJP President Amit Shah for the southern party’s entry into the ruling NDA. Both Palaniswami and Panneerselvam were invited for Vice-President M Venkaiah Naidu’s swearing-in ceremony and the PM met both leaders separately.

Prafulla Ketkar, editor of the RSS mouthpiece Organiser , said the merger was being “mediated” by the BJP’s ideological parent. “An RSS ideologue is mediating between the two camps and has asked them to announce the merger today,” Ketkar said on his Twitter handle while commenting on a news report about AIADMK merger. BJP General Secretary P Muralidhar Rao had also said that a united AIADMK is “good for the BJP”. He had also not ruled out the AIADMK joining the NDA government.

The rationale The BJP has practically no presence in Tamil Nadu — it won no seat in the 2016 Assembly elections and had just about 2.84 per cent vote share. The BJP President’s stated aim of 350+ seats in 2019 is difficult without breaking ground in the southern States, especially in Tamil Nadu. It hopes to cannibalise a united AIADMK which is now without its towering supremo J Jayalalithaa.

JD(U)’s options In Bihar, the ruling JD(U) has formally accepted Amit Shah’s invitation to join the NDA. Led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar, the JD(U)’s national executive had on Saturday stamped its approval on joining the NDA. This is being seen as a natural precursor to any of Nitish’s favourites in New Delhi – Rajya Sabha MPs KC Tyagi, Pawan Varma, Harivansh or RCP Singh – joining the Union Cabinet. The Bihar CM has reportedly been advised to travel to Delhi soon and given a choice of one Cabinet minister or two junior ministers. He is said to be keen on having two junior ministers.

Shedding weight While the BJP is acquiring a bigger partner in Bihar, it may simultaneously shed some weight. On Monday, Shah met Rashtriya Lok Samata Party leader and Union Minister Upendra Kushwaha, leading to reports that he may be shown the door to accommodate the JD(U).

Political considerations such as these will be factored in besides, of course, performance and caste combinations.

The obvious reasons for the reshuffle are that ministers like Arun Jaitley are over-burdened with big portfolios like Finance and Defence, besides Corporate Affairs. After M Venkaiah Naidu’s election as Vice-President, his portfolios have been distributed between Smriti Irani and Narendra Tomar. Harsh Vardhan has additional charge of Environment besides Science and Technology. Some, like Piyush Goyal, await elevation to Cabinet rank.

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