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The watch for a fresh low-pressure area developing over the North Andaman Sea by tomorrow is being maintained, after a parent depression (tropical storm Kirogi) prowled the seas off the Vietnam coast.
The 'low' would be a west-southwest-ward moving remnant of Kirogi, but it is not expected to gain much strength in the Andaman Sea or the larger Bay of Bengal over the next few days.
POORLY ORGANISED SYSTEM
In fact, the northern flanks of the poorly organised system would give as it moves towards the south Tamil Nadu and Sri Lankan coasts and generate rain over those regions.
The rain would later grow further to the north, covering up to Chennai, but the momentum would shift again to a building buzz off the Malacca Strait and adjoining Malaysia and Indonesia.
A likely 'low' growing here is forecast to reach the tip of Indonesia and adjoining South-South-East Bay of Bengal and travel west-north-west towards Sri Lanka initially and Tamil Nadu, progressively.
Early wind-field projections of the India Met Department (IMD) show prospects of a tropical cyclone developing from the system by the time it reaches Sri Lanka next week, the last of the month.
It may be recalled that the US Climate Prediction Centre has already marked out the Bay for watch for cyclone formation during November 22 and 28.
US FORECASTS AGREE
A weather tracker of the US agency too points to the prospects of storm formation off Sri Lanka and Tamil Nadu during end-November and rains reaching Chennai and South Coastal Andhra Pradesh.
In addition, it has hinted at the possibility of a remnant crossing over India's south extreme peninsula and crossing over into the Arabian Sea off Kerala, where it could grow again and move north-northwest.
Meanwhile, the IMD's operational extended range forecast valid between end-November and mid-December sees rains for the South Peninsula trending in line with these outlooks.
The IMD has forecast that the southern peninsula, including the Met subdivisions of the North-East monsoon regions, would get normal to above normal rainfall during this period.
Rainfall statistics for the period October 1 to November 15 shows that except coastal Andhra Pradesh, most of the Met subdivisions have recorded normal rainfall.
But even among those falling under the 'normal' category, the coastal regions have benefitted so far, even as the interior parts are still waiting for their due share of the rains.
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