Kerala is heading for a significant phase in its demographic transition with the State moving towards achieving zero population growth rate, which will result in an increase in scarcity of labour.
With a very low fertility rate and stabilising death rate, Kerala is expected to achieve zero population growth rate in 25 to 30 years, a stage indicating the incipient decline of the population, according to the State Urbanisation Report.
“Kerala is already experiencing negative population growth and with the birth and death rate remaining at the same level, the State’s population growth will reach the zero level,” the Population Expert at the Centre for Development Studies, Gridhyaraj, told PTI here.
The very low natural increase in population, a low fertility rate and a stabilised death rate all lead to the third stage of demographic transition in Kerala — zero population growth rate, he said.
There would be more old people, leading to health-related problems. Also, there would be shortage of labour.
The report, prepared by the Department of Town and Country Planning, found that migration from the State and decline in fertility were a cause for the low population growth.
Interestingly there were regional variations in population growth. There was also a spatial shift in the region of high population growth rate in the last five decades.
While in the 1950s, the southern districts showed high population growth, at present the growth rate is in central and northern districts, the report said.
Currently Kerala’s population is 3.34 crore, constituting about 2.7 per cent of the total population of India. The annual population growth rate is 0.5 per cent, lowest in the country.
Kerala has a high population density with 859 persons per square kilometre.
Historically Kerala has experienced a very low population growth rate compared to the national population growth rate.
Kerala has been considered an ‘out-migration’ State right from the 1930’s.According to a study of the city-based Centre for Development Studies, 22.8 lakh people from the State were living abroad in 2011, while the number of migrants living in other States is estimated at 9.31 lakh.
The report said Kerala, which already depends on workers from other States, especially West Bengal, Orissa and the North-East for construction activity, would also face labour shortages in agriculture and related activities in future.
Kerala now has around three million immigrant labourers, mainly in the construction sector and other allied activities.
On population features in urban areas, the report said the growth rate of the urban population has always been higher than that of the total population, indicating the high pace of urbanisation experienced in Kerala.
“The State has undergone the highest level of urbanisation in its history with a percentage increase of 83.82 during 2001-2011 over the previous decade,” it said.
According to the present urbanisation pattern, environmentally sensitive high land is spared, but fertile agriculture land in the midlands is being converted for commercial and residential purposes, the report said
Keywords: Kerala, population growth zero, death rate, birth rate, fertility, old age, migration
Comments:
The reason is there is no industry in Kerala.
All keralities are either living in Gulf, South East Asia & rest of India for a living. In Qatar ,Keralites population is more that native people.
Education and Progressive thinking have led to near zero population growth in
Kerala.There are more advantages rather than disadvantages to zero growth.Population
density is still the highest.The much feared labour shortage will lead to much desired
mechanization.The immigrant labour from North East and northern states will fill up the
gaps and Kerala labour force will turn to skill demanding and high wages jobs.already
happening.There is better distribution of wealth in Kerala than in other states.Happiness
Index as in Bhutan needs to be worked out.Even the hard core communists are tilting to
right and 'Noku kooli'-wage for onlooker-has become a matter of past.Mechanisation in
farming was opposed once but now communists are protagonists of mechanization.Media
also have played a major role in the demographic change where talk on family planning
was taboo to Church and Muslims used to be criticized for proliferated population
growth.Kerala is an ideal state model for demographic studies
When will the BIMARU states and Bengal give us similar good news? Our polititians are ducking the looming population bomb by parroting the demographic dividend lie to avoid taking hard decisions of getting the irresponsible poor from adopting family planning norms, something that will do them and the nation immense good.All free goodies /subsidies should be limited to a family of four only, any additional members to be paid for by the irresponsible people breeding like pigs/mice. A should qualify for dole only if the head(father) is 21 plus 9 months old and the mother 18 yrs nine months ( as legally the cannot marry before 21 & 18 respectively.Bet this proposal will send the polititians into a tizzy/frothing at the mouth.I will also request a public spirited PIL lawyer to raise this as a PIL with the SupremeCourt if they are genuinely intrested in the country and peoplles good.
karala model for population contol must be adopted forcefully by other state govts to make this country's future bright and prosperous.
This is a good news .Kerela had a high population density and a stable population is good ..
It is also good thing to note here that there has been massive migration of people from kerela ..so its not only beacuse of low birth rate ..
This will result is better standard of living . more space for everybody ..
There will be more old people but that is not as bad as shown in this article . many developed countries have higher proportion of old people than kerela will have in 25 years .it doesnt mean they do bad ..
Development should be measuerd in per capita and not as a gross and in this case kerela will do well . It has already a very good health standard
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