Comments
With the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) upgrading its outlook to ‘El Nino watch’ mode, the Indian Ocean could well hold the key to this year’s South-West monsoon here.
The Indian Ocean will be watched for any sign of an evolving positive phase of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).
The IOD event is comparable to El Nino-La Nina playout in the Equatorial Pacific.
During a positive IOD phase, the western part of the Indian Ocean (close to South Arabian Sea) warms up setting up clouds, and boosting a concurrent Indian monsoon.
The Application Laboratory of the Japanese national forecaster Jamstec has alluded to the likelihood of a positive IOD, but the BoM is not that optimistic.
Because it happens closer to the monsoon theatre, the IOD is thought to influence rainfall pattern over India than would the El Nino-La Nina in the far-away Pacific. Meanwhile, the BoM had kept away from taking a call on the El Nino, the abnormal warming in the East Equatorial Pacific with implications for global weather, but took the plunge on Tuesday.
In its updated outlook, it said that the likelihood of an El Nino developing this year has increased. It has since put its El Nino tracker back to a ‘watch’ position.
It estimated the probability of the recurrence of El Nino this year at 50 per cent, despite current conditions being ‘neutral,’ the BoM said in background information.
But recent changes go to elevate the probability of El Nino, it added. The Application Laboratory of the Jamstec has already come out with a similar outlook.
Both these forecasts are in dire contrast to expectations that the year 2016 was likely to be a La Nina year, which reverses El Nino conditions in the Pacific.
A La Nina has often been accompanied by heavy rain and flooding in parts of India, resulting in normal to excess monsoon.
Thus far, the BoM had gone on record to emphatically rule out a La Nina this year. But it has now proceeded to upgrade the lookout to an El Nino.
Meanwhile, parts of South India are bracing to receive badly needed summer showers from the weekend. Pilot showers may hit the extreme southern parts even ahead of it. This is being masterminded by the presence of a trough each to either side of the peninsula, anchored over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal and adjoining Sri Lanka.
The showers may scale up from Saturday, grow along the East Coast of India and last for a fortnight, according to the US National Centres for Environment Prediction.
The US Climate Prediction Centre is of the view that heavier rain may lash South Kerala and adjoining Tamil Nadu during March 6 to 12.
Comments
COMMENT NOW
Comments
Comments have to be in English, and in full sentences. They cannot be abusive or personal. Please abide by our community guidelines for posting your comments.
We have migrated to a new commenting platform. If you are already a registered user of TheHindu Businessline and logged in, you may continue to engage with our articles. If you do not have an account please register and login to post comments. Users can access their older comments by logging into their accounts on Vuukle.